Ternana Calcio vs Aquila Montevarchi
Match details. Serie D, Group E, Group E - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Libero Liberati, Terni.
What's at stake. Ternana Calcio are 13th on 5 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Mezzolara, 1 point clear of Sasso Marconi Zola. A win would take them above Mezzolara. Aquila Montevarchi are 10th on 7 points after 5 games, level on points with Robur Siena, level on points with San Donato Tavarnelle. A win would take them above Robur Siena.
Form. Ternana Calcio have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L D L. Aquila Montevarchi have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L.
The numbers. Ternana Calcio score 1.2 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Ternana Calcio average 12.0 shots (2.8 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Aquila Montevarchi score 0.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Aquila Montevarchi average 2.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Ternana Calcio the likelier winners, but Aquila Montevarchi are the stronger side on form and the table.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Ternana Calcio or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Aquila Montevarchi or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Ternana Calcio 1-1 Aquila Montevarchi (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).