Match details. Serie D, Group E, Group E - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Rondinella Marzocco Ssd are 17th on 2 points after 5 games, level on points with Grassina, 1 point clear of Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano. A win would take them above Grassina. SCD Progresso are 15th on 3 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Sasso Marconi Zola, 1 point clear of Grassina. A win would take them above Sasso Marconi Zola.
Form. Rondinella Marzocco Ssd have won one, drawn two and lost four of their last seven, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L D. SCD Progresso have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W L.
The numbers. Rondinella Marzocco Ssd score one and concede two a game over their last seven, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Rondinella Marzocco Ssd average 12.2 shots (4.8 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.8 cards a game. SCD Progresso score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. SCD Progresso average 5.5 shots (2.5 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: SCD Progresso or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); SCD Progresso (Draw No Bet) (no result call); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Rondinella Marzocco Ssd 2-1 SCD Progresso (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).