Match details. Serie D, Group E. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
Form. ASD Terranuova Traiana have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W L. AC Prato 1908 have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W.
The numbers. ASD Terranuova Traiana score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. AC Prato 1908 score 1.3 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. AC Prato 1908 average 13.2 shots (5.0 on target), 8.8 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
The case against. ASD Terranuova Traiana's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. AC Prato 1908 to win. A tight game. AC Prato 1908 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AC Prato 1908. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: AC Prato 1908 or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); AC Prato 1908 Over 0.5 Goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: ASD Terranuova Traiana 0-1 AC Prato 1908 (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).