AGASD

14:00Sun 4 Oct

LUC

Asd Grassina vs Lucchese Calcio

CLASS E

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THE READ

Match details. Serie D, Group E, Group E - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. Asd Grassina are 16th on 2 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Progresso, level on points with Rondinella. A win would take them above Progresso. Lucchese Calcio are 4th on 10 points after 5 games, level on points with Seravezza, level on points with Flaminia. A win would take them above Seravezza.

Form. Asd Grassina have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L L. Lucchese Calcio have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W.

The numbers. Asd Grassina score one and concede two a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Asd Grassina average 9.0 shots (3.7 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Lucchese Calcio score 1.9 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Lucchese Calcio average 13.0 shots (4.0 on target), 8.0 corners and 1.7 cards a game.

The case against. Asd Grassina's record still gives them 21% to win.

The read. Lucchese Calcio to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Lucchese Calcio the likelier winners; Lucchese Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lucchese Calcio. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Asd Grassina 1-2 Lucchese Calcio (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Lucchese Calcio or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ASD 4 of 5 (80%) · LUC 8 of 9 (89%)84.4%

Lucchese Calcio: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Asd Grassina: the bet landed in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · Lucchese Calcio: only games against sides at Asd Grassina's level · Asd Grassina: only games against sides at Lucchese Calcio's level

Lucchese Calcio or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ASD 4 of 5 (80%) · LUC 7 of 9 (78%)78.9%

Lucchese Calcio: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Asd Grassina: the bet landed in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · Lucchese Calcio: only games against sides at Asd Grassina's level · Asd Grassina: only games against sides at Lucchese Calcio's level

Lucchese Calcio (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY

no price yet

ASD 7 of 9 (78%) · LUC 5 of 7 (71%)74.6%

Lucchese Calcio won 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Asd Grassina lost 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 75% · Asd Grassina: only games against sides at Lucchese Calcio's level · won 5, refunded 1, lost 3

Lucchese Calcio to WinLEANPAGE ONLY

1.55

ASD 3 of 5 (60%) · LUC 5 of 9 (56%)57.8%

Lucchese Calcio won 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Asd Grassina lost 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 58% · Lucchese Calcio: only games against sides at Asd Grassina's level · Asd Grassina: only games against sides at Lucchese Calcio's level

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ASD 8 of 9 (89%) · LUC 4 of 5 (80%)84.4%

Asd Grassina: over 0.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Lucchese Calcio: over 0.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · Asd Grassina: only games against sides at Lucchese Calcio's level · Lucchese Calcio: only games against sides at Asd Grassina's level

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ASD 6 of 9 (67%) · LUC 4 of 5 (80%)73.3%

Asd Grassina: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Lucchese Calcio: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · Asd Grassina: only games against sides at Lucchese Calcio's level · Lucchese Calcio: only games against sides at Asd Grassina's level

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.86

ASD 4 of 9 (44%) · LUC 4 of 5 (80%)62.2%

Asd Grassina: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Lucchese Calcio: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 62% · Asd Grassina: only games against sides at Lucchese Calcio's level · Lucchese Calcio: only games against sides at Asd Grassina's level

LUCCHESE CALCIO GOALS

Lucchese Calcio Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ASD 3 of 5 (60%) · LUC 8 of 9 (89%)74.4%

Lucchese Calcio scored in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Asd Grassina conceded in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · Lucchese Calcio: only games against sides at Asd Grassina's level · Asd Grassina: only games against sides at Lucchese Calcio's level

Lucchese Calcio Over 1.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ASD 3 of 5 (60%) · LUC 5 of 9 (56%)57.8%

Lucchese Calcio scored over 1.5 in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Asd Grassina conceded over 1.5 in 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 58% · Lucchese Calcio: only games against sides at Asd Grassina's level · Asd Grassina: only games against sides at Lucchese Calcio's level

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 9.9%

Asd Grassina goals →

Lucchese Calcio goals ↓

0-05%

1-05%

2-03%

3-01%

4-00.3%

5-00.1%

0-18%

1-111%

2-16%

3-12%

4-10.6%

5-10.1%

0-29%

1-210%

2-26%

3-22%

4-20.6%

5-20.1%

0-36%

1-36%

2-34%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-43%

1-43%

2-42%

3-40.7%

4-40.2%

5-40.0%

0-51%

1-51%

2-50.7%

3-50.3%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

ASD GRASSINAWWLLLLLDLD0.80 PPG

LUCCHESE CALCIOWLWWWWLWDW2.20 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ASD GRASSINA HOMExLUCCHESE CALCIO AWAY

1.00SCORED A GAME1.901.90CONCEDED A GAME1.2010%CLEAN SHEETS50%60%FAILED TO SCORE40%5.00CORNERS A GAME8.001.00CARDS A GAME1.67

THE BANK

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

65%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

55%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

53%

NO · 85/90

ASD GRASSINA OR DRAW

65%

NO · 80/85

LUCCHESE CALCIO OR DRAW

65%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (4 and 5 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

TRENDS

Asd Grassina have scored in 40% of their games.

Lucchese Calcio have scored in 80% of their games.

Asd Grassina kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Lucchese Calcio kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards