Match details. Serie D, Group E, Group E - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. ASD Flaminia Civita Castellana are 5th on 10 points after 5 games, level on points with Lucchese, 1 point clear of Tau Altopascio. A win would take them above Lucchese. US Follonica Gavorrano are 2nd on 13 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Prato, 3 points clear of Seravezza. A win would take them above Prato.
Form. ASD Flaminia Civita Castellana have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W W. US Follonica Gavorrano have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W.
The numbers. ASD Flaminia Civita Castellana score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. ASD Flaminia Civita Castellana average 13.6 shots (4.6 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.0 cards a game. US Follonica Gavorrano score 1.9 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings ASD Flaminia Civita Castellana have won two, drawn two and lost four. Five of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, ASD Flaminia Civita Castellana won one, one was drawn and US Follonica Gavorrano won two. The last time they met, on 2 Feb 2025, it finished ASD Flaminia Civita Castellana 1-2 US Follonica Gavorrano.
The case against. ASD Flaminia Civita Castellana's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. US Follonica Gavorrano to win. An open game. US Follonica Gavorrano are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour US Follonica Gavorrano. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%. Five of the last eight meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: ASD Flaminia Civita Castellana 1-2 US Follonica Gavorrano (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).