Match details. Serie D, Group D, Group D - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. GS Arconatese 1926 are 16th on 2 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Oltrepò, 1 point clear of Crema. A win would take them above Oltrepò. Pro Sesto are 2nd on 12 points after 5 games, 3 points behind Pistoiese, level on points with Pro Patria. A win would take them level on points with Pistoiese.
Form. GS Arconatese 1926 have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L D L. Pro Sesto have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L.
The numbers. GS Arconatese 1926 score 1.1 and concede 2.4 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Pro Sesto score 1.4 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Pro Sesto average 7.7 shots (3.0 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.1 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings GS Arconatese 1926 have won one, drawn one and lost two. Three of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 29 Jan 2025, it finished GS Arconatese 1926 1-1 Pro Sesto.
The case against. GS Arconatese 1926's record still gives them 27% to win.
The read. Pro Sesto to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Pro Sesto the likelier winners; Pro Sesto are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Pro Sesto. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%. Three of the last four meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Pro Sesto Win & Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: GS Arconatese 1926 1-2 Pro Sesto (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).