AAACA

13:00Sun 4 Oct

POL

AC Afragolese vs Polisportiva Ossese

CLASS E

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Serie D, Group G, Group G - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. AC Afragolese are 12th on 6 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Gelbison, level on points with Aranova. A win would take them above Gelbison. Polisportiva Ossese are 8th on 8 points after 5 games, level on points with Albalonga, 1 point clear of Budoni. A win would take them above Albalonga.

Form. AC Afragolese have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D D. Polisportiva Ossese have won three, drawn two and lost two of their last seven, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D W W.

The numbers. AC Afragolese score 0.6 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and seven games without a goal. AC Afragolese average 9.2 shots (3.3 on target), 3.2 corners and 0.8 cards a game. Polisportiva Ossese score 1.3 and concede one a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets.

The read. Polisportiva Ossese to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Polisportiva Ossese the likelier winners; Polisportiva Ossese are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: AC Afragolese 0-1 Polisportiva Ossese (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Polisportiva Ossese or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACA 4 of 5 (80%) · POL 8 of 9 (89%)84.4%

Polisportiva Ossese: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · AC Afragolese: the bet landed in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · Polisportiva Ossese: only games against sides at AC Afragolese's level · AC Afragolese: only games against sides at Polisportiva Ossese's level

Polisportiva Ossese (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACA 3 of 5 (60%) · POL 4 of 5 (80%)70%

Polisportiva Ossese won 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · AC Afragolese lost 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 70% · won 3, refunded 2, lost 2

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACA 8 of 9 (89%) · POL 5 of 5 (100%)94.4%

AC Afragolese: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Polisportiva Ossese: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · AC Afragolese: only games against sides at Polisportiva Ossese's level · Polisportiva Ossese: only games against sides at AC Afragolese's level

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACA 8 of 9 (89%) · POL 5 of 5 (100%)94.4%

AC Afragolese: under 5.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Polisportiva Ossese: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · AC Afragolese: only games against sides at Polisportiva Ossese's level · Polisportiva Ossese: only games against sides at AC Afragolese's level

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACA 6 of 9 (67%) · POL 4 of 5 (80%)73.3%

AC Afragolese: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Polisportiva Ossese: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · AC Afragolese: only games against sides at Polisportiva Ossese's level · Polisportiva Ossese: only games against sides at AC Afragolese's level

Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.74

ACA 6 of 9 (67%) · POL 3 of 5 (60%)63.3%

AC Afragolese: under 2.5 goals in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Polisportiva Ossese: under 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 63% · AC Afragolese: only games against sides at Polisportiva Ossese's level · Polisportiva Ossese: only games against sides at AC Afragolese's level

POLISPORTIVA OSSESE GOALS

Polisportiva Ossese Over 0.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACA 4 of 5 (80%) · POL 5 of 9 (56%)67.8%

Polisportiva Ossese scored in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · AC Afragolese conceded in 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 68% · Polisportiva Ossese: only games against sides at AC Afragolese's level · AC Afragolese: only games against sides at Polisportiva Ossese's level

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 14.5%

AC Afragolese goals →

Polisportiva Ossese goals ↓

0-012%

1-08%

2-04%

3-01.0%

4-00.2%

5-00.0%

0-114%

1-113%

2-15%

3-11%

4-10.3%

5-10.0%

0-211%

1-29%

2-24%

3-21.0%

4-20.2%

5-20.0%

0-35%

1-34%

2-32%

3-30.5%

4-30.1%

5-30.0%

0-42%

1-41%

2-40.6%

3-40.2%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.5%

1-50.4%

2-50.2%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

AC AFRAGOLESEDDLLLDDDWL0.80 PPG

POLISPORTIVA OSSESEWLWWDLD1.57 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AC AFRAGOLESE HOMExPOLISPORTIVA OSSESE AWAY

0.60SCORED A GAME1.291.50CONCEDED A GAME1.0040%CLEAN SHEETS43%60%FAILED TO SCORE20%

THE BANK

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

85%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

43%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

96%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

AC AFRAGOLESE OR DRAW

84%

OKAY · 80/85

POLISPORTIVA OSSESE OR DRAW

45%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 4 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

TRENDS

AC Afragolese have scored in 30% of their games.

Polisportiva Ossese have scored in 86% of their games.

AC Afragolese kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Polisportiva Ossese kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards