Match details. It's an international friendly. Kick-off is Fri 2 Oct, 12:35 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It's just a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. China PR have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L L. Palestine have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D W D.
The numbers. China PR score one and concede one a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. They average 4.8 shots (1.8 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.7 cards a game. Palestine score 1.1 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 8.4 shots (3.1 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
The read. Palestine to win. A tight game. Palestine are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour Palestine. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 33%.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Palestine at 1.47, 80% on the records (Palestine unbeaten in 9 of 10; China PR failed to win 2 of 5 at home). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: China PR 0-1 Palestine (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).