THE READ
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League A - 4. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Poljud, Split. The referee is Erik Lambrechts.
What's at stake. Croatia are 3rd on 3 points after 3 games, 3 points behind England, 3 points clear of Czechia. A win would take them level on points with England. Spain are 1st on 9 points after 3 games, 3 points clear of England.
Form. Croatia have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L W. Spain have won nine, drawn one and lost none of their last ten, 2.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W.
The numbers. Croatia score 1.8 and concede 2.2 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. Croatia average 12.9 shots (5.0 on target), 5.3 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 43% of the ball. Spain score 2.3 and concede 0.5 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets. Spain average 15.9 shots (6.9 on target), 5.7 corners and 0.7 cards a game, with 62% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Croatia have won two, drawn none and lost four. Five of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Croatia won one and Spain won three. The last time they met, on 29 Sep 2026, it finished Croatia 1-4 Spain: Croatia had 5 shots to 16, 36% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The read. Spain to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Spain the likelier winners; Spain are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Spain; the meetings favour Spain. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 76%. Five of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Spain (Draw No Bet) at 1.10, 92% on the records (Spain won 9 of 9 (draws left out); Croatia lost 4 of 10 (draws left out)). Backup: Spain or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (Spain are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Croatia 0-3 Spain (11% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Spain or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
CRO 9 of 10 (90%) · ESP 9 of 10 (90%)96.8%
Spain: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Croatia: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 92% · H2H 6 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
Spain (Draw No Bet)MAININ CODES
1.10
CRO 9 of 9 (100%) · ESP 4 of 10 (40%)95.9%
Spain won 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Croatia lost 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 97% · H2H 4 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against · won 5, refunded 0, lost 3
Spain or Over 2.5 GoalsBACKUPPAGE ONLY
1.13
CRO 9 of 10 (90%) · ESP 9 of 10 (90%)88.5%
Spain: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Croatia: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 92% · H2H 6 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
1.15
CRO 4 of 5 (80%) · ESP 9 of 10 (90%)84.6%
Spain scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Croatia trailed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
1.28
CRO 4 of 5 (80%) · ESP 9 of 10 (90%)84.5%
Spain scored first 4 of last 5, led by 2 or won in 4 · led by 2 or won in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Croatia trailed by 2 or lost in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
Spain to Win Either Half: YesPAGE ONLY
1.15
CRO 9 of 10 (90%) · ESP 5 of 10 (50%)84.2%
Spain: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Croatia: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half Result or Match Result: SpainPAGE ONLY
1.15
CRO 9 of 10 (90%) · ESP 5 of 10 (50%)84.2%
Spain: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Croatia: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Spain or draw and over 1.5 goalsIN CODES
1.21
CRO 4 of 10 (40%) · ESP 7 of 10 (70%)81.7%
Croatia: the bet landed in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Spain: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · H2H 3 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
1.31
CRO 9 of 10 (90%) · ESP 4 of 10 (40%)80.5%
Spain won 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Croatia lost 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · H2H 4 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
Spain Win & Over 1.5IN CODES
1.40
CRO 7 of 10 (70%) · ESP 4 of 10 (40%)73.3%
Spain: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Croatia: the bet landed in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · H2H 3 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
1.15
CRO 9 of 10 (90%) · ESP 7 of 10 (70%)87.1%
Croatia: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Spain: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · H2H 5 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.45
CRO 9 of 10 (90%) · ESP 6 of 10 (60%)63.7%
Croatia: over 2.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Spain: over 2.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · H2H 5 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
CROATIA GOALS
Croatia Under 1.5 goalsIN CODES
1.20
CRO 4 of 10 (40%) · ESP 9 of 10 (90%)93.4%
Croatia scored under 1.5 in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Spain conceded under 1.5 in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · H2H 4 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
SPAIN GOALS
Spain Over 1.5 goalsIN CODES
1.34
CRO 7 of 10 (70%) · ESP 5 of 10 (50%)73.2%
Spain scored over 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Croatia conceded over 1.5 in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · H2H 4 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.16
CRO 10 of 10 (100%) · ESP 8 of 10 (80%)87.1%
Croatia: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Spain: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 88% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - Spain Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.28
CRO 8 of 10 (80%) · ESP 6 of 10 (60%)81.8%
Spain: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Croatia: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 87% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.28
CRO 7 of 10 (70%) · ESP 8 of 10 (80%)74.2%
Croatia: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Spain: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Under 5.5 Goals (Spain are a clear winner - no Unders)