Ukraine vs Hungary
Match details. This is a Nations League B, 4 clash on Mon 5 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It's at Štadión Antona Malatinského in Trnava. Igor Pajac will be the referee.
What's at stake. Ukraine sit second on 4 points after three games, three points behind Northern Ireland and level with Hungary. A win would bring them level with Northern Ireland. Hungary are third on 4 points, three points clear of Georgia, and a win would push them above Ukraine.
Form. Ukraine have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, averaging 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first, are L D W L W. Hungary have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, averaging 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first, are W D L L W.
The numbers. At home in the last five Ukraine score one and concede 1.8, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. They average 8.9 shots, 3.6 on target, three corners and 3.3 cards a game, holding 56% of the ball. Hungary score 1.2 and concede 1.4 over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 11.0 shots, 4.0 on target, 4.7 corners and 2.6 cards a game, holding 54% of the ball.
Head to head. The last meeting was on 25 Sep 2026, when Ukraine won 1-0. Ukraine had ten shots to Hungary's 17, 43% of the ball and eight yellow cards were shown.
Where it pulls both ways. Both sides have tight goal records, so a low-scoring game looks likely. Their past numbers put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The read. Ukraine or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Ukraine the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Ukraine. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Ukraine or Draw at 1.41, 78% on the records (Ukraine unbeaten in 4 of 6; Hungary failed to win 5 of 5). The safer one: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.28 (79%). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Ukraine or Under 2.5 Goals (no side to back); Ukraine 1UP (no side to back); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Ukraine 1-0 Hungary (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).