THE READ
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League B - 4. Kick-off is Mon 5 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time at Arena Națională, Bucharest. Referee is Elcin Masiyev.
What's at stake. Romania sit fourth on 0 points after three games, four points behind Poland. Sweden sit first on 7 points after three games, two points clear of Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Form. Romania have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L W. Sweden have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L D.
The numbers. Romania score 1.7 and concede 2.1 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 11.1 shots (3.9 on target), 1.7 corners and 2.1 cards a game, holding 43% of the ball. Sweden score 1.2 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. They average 10.7 shots (4.9 on target), 2.3 corners and 1.0 cards a game, holding 56% of the ball.
Head to head. Sweden have won all of the last three meetings. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 25 Sep 2026, it finished Romania 1-2 Sweden: Romania had 10 shots to 11, 40% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The case against. Romania's record still gives them 25% to win.
The read. Sweden to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Sweden the likelier winners; Sweden are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sweden; the meetings favour Sweden. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%. Two of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Sweden Over 1.5 goals (Sweden's own games don't back it (1 of 5)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Romania 1-2 Sweden (10% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Sweden or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ROU 5 of 5 (100%) · SWE 4 of 5 (80%)91.6%
Sweden: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · Romania: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · H2H 3 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Sweden win or both teams scoreIN CODES
1.11
ROU 4 of 5 (80%) · SWE 4 of 5 (80%)87.3%
Sweden: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · Romania: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 3 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Sweden (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY
1.32
ROU 5 of 7 (71%) · SWE 4 of 5 (80%)84.3%
Sweden won 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Romania lost 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 71% · H2H 3 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against · won 2, refunded 2, lost 5
Double Chance: Draw or SwedenIN CODES
1.21
ROU 3 of 5 (60%) · SWE 4 of 5 (80%)84.2%
Sweden unbeaten in 3 of 5 away · Romania failed to win 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · H2H 3 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Sweden or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.23
ROU 3 of 5 (60%) · SWE 4 of 5 (80%)75.8%
Sweden: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · Romania: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 3 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Sweden or draw and over 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.38
ROU 3 of 5 (60%) · SWE 3 of 5 (60%)70.5%
Romania: the bet landed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sweden: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 67% · H2H 3 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Sweden or Draw (1UP)LEANHELD · the odds board 84%
1.19
ROU 3 of 5 (60%) · SWE 3 of 5 (60%)62.2%
Sweden scored first 2 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 3 · led or was unbeaten in 3 of 5 away · Romania trailed or failed to win in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
Sweden to WinLEANPAGE ONLY
1.83
ROU 1 of 5 (20%) · SWE 4 of 5 (80%)54.8%
Sweden won 1 of 5 away · Romania lost 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 62% · H2H 3 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Sweden Win & Over 1.5SETTLEDPAGE ONLY
2.00
ROU 1 of 5 (20%) · SWE 3 of 5 (60%)50.6%
Sweden: the bet landed in 1 of 5 away · Romania: the bet landed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 52% · H2H 3 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against · rule 2: the meetings back Sweden: in the last 3 meetings, Sweden won 3; in the last 3, Sweden won 3
GOALS
1.17
ROU 3 of 5 (60%) · SWE 5 of 5 (100%)79.9%
Romania: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sweden: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · H2H 3 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.63
ROU 3 of 5 (60%) · SWE 3 of 5 (60%)55%
Romania: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sweden: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 65% · H2H 2 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
ROMANIA GOALS
Romania Under 1.5 goalsLEANIN CODES
1.42
ROU 5 of 5 (100%) · SWE 3 of 5 (60%)64.8%
Romania scored under 1.5 in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sweden conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 82% · H2H 3 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Romania Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.39
ROU 3 of 5 (60%) · SWE 5 of 5 (100%)53.6%
Romania scored in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sweden conceded in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · H2H 2 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
SWEDEN GOALS
Sweden Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.12
ROU 4 of 5 (80%) · SWE 4 of 5 (80%)86.6%
Sweden scored in 4 of 5 away · Romania conceded in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 3 of 3 · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5LEANPAGE ONLY
1.20
ROU 4 of 5 (80%) · SWE 5 of 5 (100%)69%
Romania: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sweden: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 86% · H2H 1 of 3 · on half-time scores · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.32
ROU 3 of 5 (60%) · SWE 3 of 5 (60%)68.1%
Romania: the bet landed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sweden: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 65% · H2H 3 of 3 · on half-time scores · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.60
ROU 4 of 5 (80%) · SWE 4 of 5 (80%)64.3%
Romania: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sweden: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 67% · H2H 0 of 3 · on half-time scores · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
CARDS
1.19
ROU 4 of 5 (80%) · SWE 6 of 9 (67%)73.7%
Romania's games: over 2.5 cards in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sweden's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · Romania: only games against sides at Sweden's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Sweden Over 1.5 goals (Sweden's own games don't back it (1 of 5)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))