Northern Ireland vs Georgia
Match details. Northern Ireland host Georgia in the UEFA Nations League, League B - 4. Kick-off is Mon 5 Oct at 19:45 Lagos time at Windsor Park in Belfast. Sebastian Gishamer is the referee.
What's at stake. Northern Ireland sit 1st on seven points after three games, three points clear of Ukraine. Georgia are 4th on one point after three games, three points behind Hungary. A win for the visitors would take them level on points with Hungary.
Form. Northern Ireland have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten matches, averaging 1.6 points a game. Their recent form reads W D W L W. Georgia have struggled with two wins, one draw and seven defeats in their last ten, taking 0.7 points a game. They have lost four of their last five, with a form run of L D L L L.
The numbers. Over their last ten, Northern Ireland score 1.1 and concede 0.8 goals a game, keeping five clean sheets and failing to score in four. They average 8.6 shots (3.5 on target), 1.7 corners and 2.8 cards with 34% of the ball. Georgia score 1.3 but concede 1.8 a game, keeping two clean sheets and going scoreless in five. They average 9.2 shots (3.4 on target), 5.7 corners and 1.5 cards with 56% possession.
Head to head. The last time these two met was on 25 Sep 2026, ending in a 1-0 win for Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland had 12 shots to 11, with 38% of the ball and four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree here. The odds board makes it a 40% chance, but the actual records point to 60%.
The read. No firm call: Northern Ireland are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Northern Ireland the likelier winners, and they are the stronger side on form and in the table. Both teams' records favour the hosts, though their goals for and against point to a tight match. Those records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.19, 81% on the records (Northern Ireland: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10; Georgia: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10). Backup: Northern Ireland or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Northern Ireland 1-0 Georgia (16% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).