ITAITA

19:45Mon 5 Oct

TUR

TUR

Italy vs Turkiye

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE BETBANKER · 2-ODDS · 3-ODDS · 5-ODDS…

DOUBLE CHANCE

Class A

ITAv

TUR

Double Chance: Italy or Draw

Italy v Turkiye

International - UEFA… · 19:45

1.11odds

90%book

+4edge

1/1angles

THE READ

Match details. Italy face Turkiye in League A - 4 of the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off is Mon 5 Oct at 19:45 Lagos time at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna, with Szymon Marciniak refereeing.

What's at stake. Italy are 3rd on 4 points after three games, 2 points behind Belgium and 4 points clear of Turkiye. A win would take them above Belgium. Turkiye are 4th on 0 points after three games, 4 points behind Italy.

Form. Italy have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, averaging 2.0 points a game. Their last five matches ended D W L D W. Turkiye have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, averaging 1.3 points a game, with their last five going L L L W L.

The numbers. Italy score 2.2 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. They average 13.6 shots, with 5.7 on target, 6.1 corners and 2.1 cards a game, while having 46% of the ball. Turkiye score one and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. They average 16.4 shots, with 4.8 on target, 6.1 corners and 2.7 cards, with 45% of the ball.

Head to head. Italy have won all of the last two meetings. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 28 Sep 2026, it finished Italy 4-1 Turkiye, with Italy having 14 shots to 15, 46% of the ball and three yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game, and their records put over 2.5 goals at 49%.

The case against. Turkiye's record still gives them 26% to win. Not everything agrees on goals, as their records put over 2.5 goals at 49%.

The read. Italy to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Italy the likelier winners, and Italy are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour Italy, and their goals for and against point to an open game.

The bets. Best bet: Italy or Draw at 1.13, 88% on the records (Italy unbeaten in 8 of 10; Turkiye failed to win 6 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Italy are a clear winner, no Unders); Italy Over 1.5 goals (Italy's own games don't back it (6 of 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (Italy are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Italy 2-1 Turkiye (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Italy or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ITA 10 of 10 (100%) · TUR 8 of 10 (80%)97.8%

Italy: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 96% · each game weighed by who it was against

Double Chance: Italy or DrawMAININ CODES

1.11

ITA 8 of 10 (80%) · TUR 6 of 10 (60%)93.9%

Italy unbeaten in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye failed to win 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · each game weighed by who it was against

Italy (Draw No Bet)IN CODES

1.14

ITA 6 of 8 (75%) · TUR 5 of 9 (56%)92.3%

Italy won 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Turkiye lost 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 65% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 4, refunded 1, lost 3

Italy or Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.17

ITA 7 of 10 (70%) · TUR 7 of 10 (70%)75.9%

Italy: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against

Italy or Draw & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY

1.27

ITA 8 of 10 (80%) · TUR 4 of 10 (40%)75.2%

Italy: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye: the bet landed in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 60% · each game weighed by who it was against

Italy to WinPAGE ONLY

1.41

ITA 6 of 10 (60%) · TUR 5 of 10 (50%)73.5%

Italy won 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye lost 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 49% · each game weighed by who it was against

Italy 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY

1.23

ITA 3 of 5 (60%) · TUR 6 of 8 (75%)64.5%

Italy scored first 3 of last 5, led in 3 · led in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye trailed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.17

ITA 10 of 10 (100%) · TUR 6 of 10 (60%)83.7%

Italy: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.51

ITA 5 of 10 (50%) · TUR 4 of 10 (40%)51.5%

Italy: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 49% · each game weighed by who it was against

TURKIYE GOALS

Turkiye Under 1.5 goalsIN CODES

1.24

ITA 7 of 10 (70%) · TUR 7 of 10 (70%)91.3%

Turkiye scored under 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Italy conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5BACKUPPAGE ONLY

1.17

ITA 10 of 10 (100%) · TUR 9 of 10 (90%)95.2%

Italy: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsIN CODES

1.22

ITA 8 of 9 (89%) · TUR 8 of 10 (80%)87.4%

Italy's games: over 2.5 cards in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye's games: over 2.5 cards in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 87% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (Italy are a clear winner - no Unders); Italy Over 1.5 goals (Italy's own games don't back it (6 of 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (Italy are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.6%

Italy goals →

Turkiye goals ↓

0-07%

1-012%

2-013%

3-09%

4-04%

5-02%

0-14%

1-110%

2-110%

3-17%

4-13%

5-11%

0-22%

1-24%

2-24%

3-22%

4-21%

5-20.5%

0-30.4%

1-30.9%

2-30.9%

3-30.6%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.1%

1-40.2%

2-40.2%

3-40.1%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.0%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

ITALYWWWWLWDLWD2.00 PPG

TURKIYEWDWWLLWLLL1.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ITALY HOMExTURKIYE AWAY

2.20SCORED A GAME1.001.40CONCEDED A GAME1.5030%CLEAN SHEETS30%33%FAILED TO SCORE67%6.10CORNERS A GAME6.102.11CARDS A GAME2.70

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

ITALY 2 · 100%DRAW 0TURKIYE 0 · 0%

2021-06-11Italy 3 – 0 Turkiye

2026-09-28Italy 4 – 1 Turkiye

TRENDS

Italy have scored in 90% of their games.

Turkiye have scored in 60% of their games.

Italy kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Turkiye kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards