THE READ
Match details. This is a UEFA Nations League League A - 4 clash on Mon 5 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It's at the Stade de France in Paris. Nick Walsh will be the referee.
What's at stake. France sit top with 7 points after three games, a point ahead of Belgium. Belgium are second on 6 points, one back and two clear of Italy. A win would lift them above France.
Form. France have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L L. Belgium have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L W.
The numbers. France score 2.2 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. They average 17.1 shots (7.5 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.2 cards, holding 65% of the ball. Belgium score 2.5 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 17.3 shots (6.4 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.9 cards, with 44% possession.
Head to head. France have won all of the last six meetings. Two of those six went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in two games. In the last four meetings France won each one. The most recent clash on 28 Sep 2026 ended 1-0 to France, with France on 18 shots to 12, 65% possession and three yellow cards.
The case against. Belgium still only have a 30% chance to win. Their goals for and against suggest a tight contest. Their record puts the over 2.5 goal line at 44%. Four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The read. France to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make France the likelier winners; France are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour France; the meetings favour France.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Belgium Under 1.5 goals (France's own games don't back it (4 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); France Over 1.5 goals (Belgium's own games don't back it (2 of 10)). Predicted score: France 2-1 Belgium (10% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
France or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
FRA 6 of 6 (100%) · BEL 9 of 10 (90%)94.8%
France: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Belgium: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 97% · H2H 6 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
France (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY
1.23
FRA 3 of 5 (60%) · BEL 2 of 7 (29%)88.9%
France won 3 of 5 at home (draws left out) · Belgium lost 2 of 7 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 63% · H2H 6 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against · won 4, refunded 1, lost 5
Double Chance: France or DrawPAGE ONLY
1.17
FRA 4 of 6 (67%) · BEL 5 of 10 (50%)87.5%
France unbeaten in 4 of 6 at home · Belgium failed to win 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 68% · H2H 6 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
France to Win Either Half: YesPAGE ONLY
1.27
FRA 4 of 6 (67%) · BEL 4 of 10 (40%)72.6%
France: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Belgium: the bet landed in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 69% · H2H 6 of 6 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
France or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANIN CODES
1.18
FRA 4 of 6 (67%) · BEL 7 of 10 (70%)67.4%
France: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Belgium: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · H2H 6 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
France to WinLEANPAGE ONLY
1.57
FRA 3 of 6 (50%) · BEL 2 of 10 (20%)58.4%
France won 3 of 6 at home · Belgium lost 2 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 54% · H2H 6 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
1.17
FRA 6 of 6 (100%) · BEL 8 of 10 (80%)77.6%
France: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Belgium: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · H2H 3 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
FRANCE GOALS
France Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.10
FRA 5 of 6 (83%) · BEL 6 of 10 (60%)86.8%
France scored in 5 of 6 at home · Belgium conceded in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 78% · H2H 6 of 6 · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.16
FRA 6 of 6 (100%) · BEL 9 of 10 (90%)98%
France: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Belgium: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 97% · H2H 6 of 6 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.21
FRA 5 of 6 (83%) · BEL 8 of 10 (80%)87.3%
France: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Belgium: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 6 of 6 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY
1.28
FRA 6 of 6 (100%) · BEL 8 of 10 (80%)79.5%
France: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Belgium: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - France Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.36
FRA 5 of 6 (83%) · BEL 4 of 10 (40%)76.5%
France: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Belgium: the bet landed in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · H2H 6 of 6 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.73
FRA 5 of 6 (83%) · BEL 7 of 10 (70%)66.3%
France: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Belgium: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 66% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.26
FRA 4 of 6 (67%) · BEL 8 of 10 (80%)64.2%
France: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Belgium: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 64% · H2H 3 of 6 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Belgium Under 1.5 goals (France's own games don't back it (4 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); France Over 1.5 goals (Belgium's own games don't back it (2 of 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 6
FRANCE 6 · 100%DRAW 0BELGIUM 0 · 0%
2 of 6BOTH TEAMS SCORED
3 of 6OVER 1.5 GOALS
2 of 6OVER 2.5 GOALS
1 of 6OVER 3.5 GOALS
2018-07-10France 1 – 0 Belgium
2021-10-07France 3 – 2 Belgium
2024-07-01France 1 – 0 Belgium
2024-09-09France 2 – 0 Belgium
2024-10-14France 2 – 1 Belgium
2026-09-28France 1 – 0 Belgium
TRENDS
France have scored in 90% of their games.
Belgium have scored in 80% of their games.
France kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.
Belgium kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.