Match details. Northern Territory Premier League. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 11:30 Lagos time.
Form. Mindil Aces have won six, drawn one and lost two of their last nine league games, 2.1 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W W D W. Darwin Olympic SC have won six, drawn one and lost one of their last eight league games, 2.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. Mindil Aces score 3.9 and concede 1.7 a game over their last nine, with two clean sheets. Mindil Aces average 6.4 corners and 1.4 cards a game. Darwin Olympic SC score 2.7 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Darwin Olympic SC average 5.4 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Mindil Aces the likelier winners, but both teams' records favour Darwin Olympic SC.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 71%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.26, rated 71% (Mindil Aces: over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10; Darwin Olympic SC: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 7 away). Predicted score: Mindil Aces 2-2 Darwin Olympic SC (7% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Darwin Olympic SC the favourite), an open game.
The league run. Mindil Aces: up and down in the league (L W W W L). Darwin Olympic SC: unbeaten in their last five league games (W W W W W).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).