El Salvador vs Jamaica
Match details. CONCACAF Nations League, League A - 2. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 03:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Cuscatlan, San Salvador.
Team news. El Salvador's line-up is confirmed. R. Cephas is their top scorer. S. Nicholson is their main creator. D. Lowe is their centre-back. Jamaica's line-up is confirmed.
Form. El Salvador have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D L. In this competition El Salvador have gone L W. Jamaica have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D D. In this competition Jamaica have gone L W.
The numbers. El Salvador score 0.8 and concede two a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and five games without a goal. El Salvador average 8.8 shots (1.8 on target), 2.3 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Jamaica score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Jamaica average 14.3 shots (4.6 on target), 4.4 corners and 3.1 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings El Salvador have won one, drawn four and lost one. None of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, El Salvador won one and three were drawn. The last time they met, on 24 Mar 2022, it finished El Salvador 1-1 Jamaica: El Salvador had 7 shots to 17, 49% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The case against. Jamaica without R. Cephas (striker), S. Nicholson (creator), D. Lowe (centre-back). El Salvador's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Jamaica or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Jamaica the likelier winners; Jamaica are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%. Six of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: El Salvador 1-1 Jamaica (13% chance).
The agreed story. Jamaica or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. El Salvador in their last internationals: lost 0-6 at Guatemala, won 3-1 v Martinique. Jamaica in their last internationals: lost 0-1 v Honduras, won 3-2 v Guatemala. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).