MALMDV

15:00Thu 1 Oct

LBN

LEB

Maldives vs Lebanon

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.

Form. Maldives have won one, drawn one and lost eight of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L. Lebanon have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W.

The numbers. Maldives score 0.6 and concede two a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and five games without a goal. Maldives average 1.3 corners a game. Lebanon score 1.9 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with seven clean sheets and four games without a goal.

Head to head. The last time they met, on 28 Jun 2023, it finished Maldives 0-1 Lebanon.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 94% against the records' 59%.

The read. No firm call: Lebanon are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Lebanon the likelier winners; Lebanon are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lebanon. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Maldives 0-1 Lebanon (14% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Lebanon the favourite), a tight game.

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.12

MDV 10 of 10 (100%) · LBN 10 of 10 (100%)97%

Maldives: under 5.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Lebanon: under 5.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.31

MDV 9 of 10 (90%) · LBN 8 of 10 (80%)86.3%

Maldives: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Lebanon: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · each game weighed by who it was against

LEBANON GOALS

Lebanon Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

LBN 6 of 10 (60%) · MDV 10 of 10 (100%)51%

Lebanon scored in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Maldives conceded in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 14.4%

Maldives goals →

Lebanon goals ↓

0-010%

1-07%

2-03%

3-00.7%

4-00.1%

5-00.0%

0-114%

1-112%

2-14%

3-11%

4-10.2%

5-10.0%

0-212%

1-29%

2-23%

3-20.9%

4-20.2%

5-20.0%

0-36%

1-35%

2-32%

3-30.5%

4-30.1%

5-30.0%

0-43%

1-42%

2-40.7%

3-40.2%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.8%

1-50.6%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

MALDIVESLLDLLLLLLW0.40 PPG

LEBANONLDWWDWWWLL1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

MALDIVES HOMExLEBANON AWAY

0.60SCORED A GAME1.902.00CONCEDED A GAME0.900%CLEAN SHEETS70%

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 1

MALDIVES 0 · 0%DRAW 0LEBANON 1 · 100%

2023-06-28Maldives 0 – 1 Lebanon

TRENDS

Maldives have scored in 50% of their games.

Lebanon have scored in 60% of their games.

Maldives kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.

Lebanon kept a clean sheet in 70% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headcorners