SLLCA

20:00Fri 2 Oct

GLP

GUA

Saint Lucia vs Guadeloupe

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. CONCACAF Nations League, League B - 2. Kick-off is Fri 2 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at BFA Technical Centre, Bridgetown.

Form. Saint Lucia have won two, drawn none and lost eight of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L. In this competition Saint Lucia have gone W L L L L. Guadeloupe have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L L. In this competition Guadeloupe have gone D W W W D.

The numbers. Saint Lucia score one and concede 3.3 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and five games without a goal. Saint Lucia average 12.8 shots (3.6 on target), 3.6 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 42% of the ball. Guadeloupe score two and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets. Guadeloupe average 13.2 shots (5.2 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Saint Lucia have won one, drawn none and lost one. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 15 Oct 2023, it finished Saint Lucia 0-2 Guadeloupe: Saint Lucia had 7 shots to 17, 41% of the ball, two yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 44% against the records' 65%.

The read. No firm call: Guadeloupe are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Guadeloupe the likelier winners; Guadeloupe are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Guadeloupe. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 79%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Saint Lucia 1-2 Guadeloupe (9% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Guadeloupe the favourite), an open game.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Saint Lucia in their last internationals: won 5-2 v Bermuda, lost 0-2 at Barbados. Guadeloupe in their last internationals: drew 2-2 v Barbados, won 2-1 at Bermuda. Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.16

LCA 10 of 10 (100%) · GLP 4 of 6 (67%)80.3%

Saint Lucia: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Guadeloupe: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 81% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

2nd Half - Guadeloupe Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.54

GLP 4 of 6 (67%) · LCA 9 of 10 (90%)78.7%

Guadeloupe: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · Saint Lucia: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 8.7%

Saint Lucia goals →

Guadeloupe goals ↓

0-02%

1-02%

2-01%

3-00.5%

4-00.1%

5-00.0%

0-15%

1-17%

2-14%

3-11%

4-10.4%

5-10.1%

0-28%

1-29%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-37%

1-38%

2-35%

3-32%

4-30.5%

5-30.1%

0-45%

1-46%

2-43%

3-41%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-53%

1-53%

2-52%

3-50.7%

4-50.2%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

SAINT LUCIALLLLWLLLLW0.60 PPG

GUADELOUPEDWWWWLLLWD1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SAINT LUCIA HOMExGUADELOUPE AWAY

1.00SCORED A GAME1.803.30CONCEDED A GAME1.300%CLEAN SHEETS50%3.60CORNERS A GAME5.501.20CARDS A GAME1.50

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

SAINT LUCIA 1 · 50%DRAW 0GUADELOUPE 1 · 50%

2023-10-13Saint Lucia 2 – 1 Guadeloupe

2023-10-15Saint Lucia 0 – 2 Guadeloupe

TRENDS

Saint Lucia have scored in 67% of their games.

Guadeloupe have scored in 100% of their games.

Saint Lucia kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.

Guadeloupe kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards