Cook Islands vs Tahiti
Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 03:00 Lagos time. It is played at CIFA Complex.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Cook Islands have won four, drawn none and lost five of their last nine, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L W. Tahiti have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W.
The numbers. Cook Islands score 0.6 and concede 2.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Tahiti score 0.7 and concede 2.2 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 91% against the records' 57%.
The read. No firm call: Tahiti are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Tahiti the likelier winners; Tahiti are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Tahiti. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Cook Islands 1-2 Tahiti (10% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Tahiti the favourite), an open game.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).