Argentina vs Burkina Faso
Match details. This international friendly sees Argentina take on Burkina Faso at the Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct at 01:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Since this is just a friendly, there are no points riding on the result.
Form. Argentina have been tough to beat, winning six, drawing three and losing just one of their last ten matches to average 2.1 points a game. Their recent run reads D W D W D. Burkina Faso are also in decent shape with six wins, two draws and two defeats from their last ten, picking up 2.0 points a game. Their last five outings ended W D L W L.
The numbers. At home, Argentina score 2.2 and concede 0.7 goals a game over their last six matches, keeping three clean sheets. They average 13.1 shots with 5.3 on target, along with 5.3 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Burkina Faso score 1.7 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six on the road, keeping four clean sheets but failing to score in two games. They average 9.4 shots with 3.1 on target, 5.1 corners and 1.5 cards.
The read. Argentina to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Argentina the likelier winners, especially since they are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour Argentina here, though their respective goals for and against do point to a tight game. Those records also put the chances of over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The bets. Best bet: Argentina to win at 1.11, 71% on the records (Argentina won 4 of 6 at home; Burkina Faso lost 2 of 6 away). Leave: Argentina or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Argentina or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Argentina 2-0 Burkina Faso (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).