Korea Republic vs Venezuela
Match details. Korea Republic host Venezuela in an international friendly. Kick-off is set for Fri 2 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on this match.
Form. Korea Republic have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, averaging 1.7 points a game. Their last five matches, newest first, read L L W L W. Venezuela have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, picking up 1.1 points a game. Their last five results are D W L L L.
The numbers. Korea Republic score 1.8 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, keeping two clean sheets. They average 12.3 shots, 4.4 on target, 6.9 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 68% of the ball. Venezuela score 0.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. They average 9.4 shots, 4.0 on target, 2.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 35% of the ball.
The case against. Even so, Venezuela's record still gives them 25% to win.
The read. Korea Republic to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Korea Republic the likelier winners, as they are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour Korea Republic, although their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Venezuela or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs Korea Republic); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Korea Republic 1-0 Venezuela (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).