USAUSA

03:00Sun 4 Oct

MEX

MEX

USA vs Mexico

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. It's an international friendly. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 03:00 Lagos time. The game is at State Farm Stadium.

What's at stake. No points on the line. It's just a friendly.

Form. USA have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W. Mexico have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W.

The numbers. USA score two and concede 1.4 a game in their last eight at home, with two clean sheets. USA average 11.5 shots (4.1 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. Mexico score 1.7 and concede 0.4 a game over their last ten, with eight clean sheets. Mexico average 13.3 shots (4.8 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last five meetings USA have won three, drawn one and lost one. Two of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. In the last four USA won two, one was drawn and Mexico won one. The last meeting on 6 Jul 2025 ended USA 1-2 Mexico; USA had 6 shots to 16, 40% of the ball and three yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. Their xG points to a tight game. Over 2.5 goals sit at 56% and three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.

The case against. USA's record still gives them 41% to win.

The read. Mexico to win. Their goals for and against make Mexico the likelier winners; Mexico are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Mexico.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: USA or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Mexico); Mexico or Over 1.5 Goals (the tipsters back USA, one team per match). Predicted score: USA 0-1 Mexico (11% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.28

USA 8 of 8 (100%) · MEX 7 of 10 (70%)89.4%

USA: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 8 at home · Mexico: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · H2H 4 of 5 · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.12

USA 6 of 8 (75%) · MEX 9 of 10 (90%)81.5%

USA: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 8 at home · Mexico: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 66% · H2H 5 of 5 · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 3.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.35

USA 5 of 8 (62%) · MEX 9 of 10 (90%)67.6%

USA: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 8 at home · Mexico: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 63% · H2H 5 of 5 · each game weighed by who it was against

MEXICO GOALS

Mexico Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.27

USA 9 of 10 (90%) · MEX 6 of 8 (75%)64.2%

Mexico scored in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · USA conceded in 6 of 8 at home · both last 10: 85% · H2H 1 of 5 · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.38

USA 8 of 8 (100%) · MEX 4 of 10 (40%)73.3%

USA: the bet landed in 8 of 8 at home · Mexico: the bet landed in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 76% · H2H 3 of 5 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: USA or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Mexico); Mexico or Over 1.5 Goals (the tipsters back USA - one team per match)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 11.1%

USA goals →

Mexico goals ↓

0-08%

1-07%

2-04%

3-01%

4-00.4%

5-00.1%

0-111%

1-113%

2-16%

3-12%

4-10.5%

5-10.1%

0-29%

1-29%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.4%

5-20.1%

0-35%

1-35%

2-32%

3-30.8%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-42%

1-42%

2-40.9%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.5%

1-50.6%

2-50.3%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

USAWWDWLWWLWL1.90 PPG

MEXICOWDWWWWWWWL2.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

USA HOMExMEXICO AWAY

1.90SCORED A GAME1.701.40CONCEDED A GAME0.4030%CLEAN SHEETS80%17%FAILED TO SCORE10%4.70CORNERS A GAME4.801.80CARDS A GAME1.701.24xG1.321.24xG AGAINST0.76

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 5

USA 3 · 60%DRAW 1MEXICO 1 · 20%

1 of 5BOTH TEAMS SCORED

4 of 5OVER 1.5 GOALS

2 of 5OVER 2.5 GOALS

0 of 5OVER 3.5 GOALS

2021-11-13USA 2 – 0 Mexico

2022-03-25USA 0 – 0 Mexico

2023-06-16USA 3 – 0 Mexico

2024-03-25USA 2 – 0 Mexico

2025-07-06USA 1 – 2 Mexico

TRENDS

USA have scored in 100% of their games.

Mexico have scored in 90% of their games.

USA kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Mexico kept a clean sheet in 80% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headteam newscornerscards