India vs Brazil

Match details. An international friendly is on the way as India take on Brazil. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. Since this is a friendly, there are no points riding on the result.

Form. India have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, averaging 0.7 points a game. Their last five matches show W L L D L. Brazil have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, getting 1.7 points a game. Their recent run is L W W W D.

The numbers. At home, India score 0.5 and concede one a game over their last six, keeping three clean sheets and going without a goal in four matches. They average 6.2 corners and 1.5 cards. Brazil score 1.5 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. They average 14.6 shots, 5.5 on target, 5.8 corners and 1.6 cards with 58% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree here. The odds board makes it 98% against the records' 59%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game, but their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.

The read. No firm call: Brazil are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Brazil the likelier winners, and they are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour Brazil, and those records put over 2.5 goals at 66%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: India 1-2 Brazil (9% chance).

The agreed story. Brazil or the draw, an open game.