Truro City vs Cirencester Town
Match details. FA Cup, 3rd Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Truro City have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L D. In this competition Truro City have gone W D. Cirencester Town have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W.
The numbers. Truro City score 2.2 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Truro City average 11.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Cirencester Town score 1.7 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Truro City have won two, drawn one and lost none. One of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 2 Nov 2021, it finished Truro City 1-0 Cirencester Town.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 83% against the records' 51%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%; two of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No firm call: Truro City are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Truro City the likelier winners; Truro City are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Truro City; the meetings favour Truro City.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Truro City 1-1 Cirencester Town (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).