TUTHA

15:00Sat 3 Oct

EAS

Thame United FC vs Eastbourne Borough

CLASS D

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. FA Cup, 3rd Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Thame United FC have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W. Eastbourne Borough have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. In this competition Eastbourne Borough have gone W W.

The numbers. Thame United FC score two and concede two a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Eastbourne Borough score 2.3 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal.

The case against. A knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Eastbourne Borough are not clearly stronger. Thame United FC's record still gives them 37% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%.

The read. Eastbourne Borough or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Eastbourne Borough the likelier winners; Eastbourne Borough are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Eastbourne Borough.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Thame United FC 1-1 Eastbourne Borough (8% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Eastbourne Borough or Under 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.18

THA 9 of 10 (90%) · EAS 2 of 5 (40%)75%

Eastbourne Borough: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Thame United FC: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 70% · the call is Eastbourne Borough or the draw: a knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Eastbourne Borough are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Eastbourne Borough (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.34

THA 7 of 10 (70%) · EAS 4 of 9 (44%)73.2%

Eastbourne Borough won 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Thame United FC lost 4 of 9 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 57% · won 3, refunded 1, lost 4

Eastbourne Borough to WinTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.59

THA 7 of 10 (70%) · EAS 2 of 5 (40%)65.6%

Eastbourne Borough won 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Thame United FC lost 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 55% · the call is Eastbourne Borough or the draw: a knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Eastbourne Borough are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.29

THA 3 of 5 (60%) · EAS 6 of 10 (60%)71.3%

Thame United FC: under 4.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Eastbourne Borough: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65%

Under 3.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.57

THA 2 of 5 (40%) · EAS 6 of 10 (60%)62.5%

Thame United FC: under 3.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · Eastbourne Borough: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 50%

THAME UNITED FC GOALS

Thame United FC Over 0.5 goalsLEANIN CODES

1.45

THA 4 of 5 (80%) · EAS 8 of 10 (80%)61.3%

Thame United FC scored in 4 of 5 at home · Eastbourne Borough conceded in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85%

EASTBOURNE BOROUGH GOALS

Eastbourne Borough Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.10

THA 8 of 10 (80%) · EAS 5 of 5 (100%)85%

Eastbourne Borough scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Thame United FC conceded in 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 85%

Eastbourne Borough Over 1.5 goalsLEANIN CODES

1.53

THA 7 of 10 (70%) · EAS 4 of 5 (80%)60%

Eastbourne Borough scored over 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Thame United FC conceded over 1.5 in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 65%

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 8.3%

Thame United FC goals →

Eastbourne Borough goals ↓

0-03%

1-03%

2-03%

3-01%

4-00.6%

5-00.2%

0-15%

1-18%

2-16%

3-13%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-29%

2-27%

3-24%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-34%

1-36%

2-35%

3-33%

4-31%

5-30.3%

0-42%

1-44%

2-43%

3-41%

4-40.6%

5-40.2%

0-51%

1-52%

2-51%

3-50.7%

4-50.3%

5-50.1%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

THAME UNITED FCWLLWLWWDWL1.60 PPG

EASTBOURNE BOROUGHWWLLLWWWWW2.10 PPG

THE NUMBERS

THAME UNITED FC HOMExEASTBOURNE BOROUGH AWAY

2.10SCORED A GAME2.301.70CONCEDED A GAME1.3010%CLEAN SHEETS20%0%FAILED TO SCORE25%

TRENDS

Thame United FC have scored in 90% of their games.

Eastbourne Borough have scored in 80% of their games.

Thame United FC kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Eastbourne Borough kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets