Match details. FA Cup, 3rd Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Morecambe FC have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L W. In this competition Morecambe FC have gone W. Darlington FC have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L L. In this competition Darlington FC have gone W.
The numbers. Morecambe FC score 2.2 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Darlington FC score 2.2 and concede 2.5 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet.
The case against. A knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Morecambe FC are not clearly stronger. Darlington FC's record still gives them 39% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.
The read. Morecambe FC or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Morecambe FC the likelier winners; Morecambe FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Morecambe FC.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Morecambe FC or Draw (1UP) (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Morecambe FC 1-1 Darlington FC (9% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Morecambe FC or Under 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.17
MOR 7 of 9 (78%) · DAR 4 of 5 (80%)79.1%
Morecambe FC: the bet landed in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Darlington FC: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 83% · Morecambe FC: only games against sides at Darlington FC's level · Darlington FC: only games against sides at Morecambe FC's level · the call is Morecambe FC or the draw: a knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Morecambe FC are not clearly str
Morecambe FC (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY
1.32
MOR 4 of 8 (50%) · DAR 3 of 5 (60%)68.1%
Morecambe FC won 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Darlington FC lost 3 of 5 away (draws left out) · both last 10: 62% · Morecambe FC: only games against sides at Darlington FC's level · Darlington FC: only games against sides at Morecambe FC's level · won 7, refunded 0, lost 4
Morecambe FC 1UPTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.38
MOR 3 of 5 (60%) · DAR 3 of 6 (50%)63.3%
Morecambe FC scored first 3 of last 5, led in 3 · led in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Darlington FC trailed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · the call is Morecambe FC or the draw: a knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Morecambe FC are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
1X2 - 2UP: Morecambe FCTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.67
MOR 2 of 5 (40%) · DAR 2 of 6 (33%)51.1%
Morecambe FC scored first 3 of last 5, led by 2 or won in 2 · led by 2 or won in 2 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Darlington FC trailed by 2 or lost in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · the call is Morecambe FC or the draw: a knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Morecambe FC are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
GOALS
Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.14
MOR 9 of 9 (100%) · DAR 2 of 5 (40%)76.8%
Morecambe FC: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Darlington FC: under 4.5 goals in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 83% · Morecambe FC: only games against sides at Darlington FC's level · Darlington FC: only games against sides at Morecambe FC's level
Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.39
MOR 8 of 9 (89%) · DAR 2 of 5 (40%)76.7%
Morecambe FC: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Darlington FC: under 3.5 goals in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 78% · Morecambe FC: only games against sides at Darlington FC's level · Darlington FC: only games against sides at Morecambe FC's level
MORECAMBE FC GOALS
Morecambe FC Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.12
MOR 7 of 9 (78%) · DAR 4 of 5 (80%)72.8%
Morecambe FC scored in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Darlington FC conceded in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 83% · Morecambe FC: only games against sides at Darlington FC's level · Darlington FC: only games against sides at Morecambe FC's level
DARLINGTON FC GOALS
Darlington FC Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.30
MOR 2 of 5 (40%) · DAR 7 of 9 (78%)66.2%
Darlington FC scored under 1.5 in 2 of 5 away · Morecambe FC conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · Darlington FC: only games against sides at Morecambe FC's level · Morecambe FC: only games against sides at Darlington FC's level
Darlington FC Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.50
MOR 5 of 5 (100%) · DAR 6 of 9 (67%)65.9%
Darlington FC scored in 5 of 5 away · Morecambe FC conceded in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · Darlington FC: only games against sides at Morecambe FC's level · Morecambe FC: only games against sides at Darlington FC's level
HALVES
1st Half Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
no price yet
MOR 9 of 9 (100%) · DAR 2 of 5 (40%)69%
Morecambe FC: the bet landed in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Darlington FC: the bet landed in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 83% · on half-time scores · Morecambe FC: only games against sides at Darlington FC's level · Darlington FC: only games against sides at Morecambe FC's level
1st Half Under 1.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
no price yet
MOR 8 of 9 (89%) · DAR 1 of 5 (20%)60.4%
Morecambe FC: the bet landed in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Darlington FC: the bet landed in 1 of 5 away · both last 10: 72% · on half-time scores · Morecambe FC: only games against sides at Darlington FC's level · Darlington FC: only games against sides at Morecambe FC's level
Left off the list: Morecambe FC or Draw (1UP) (the numbers (85%) and the records (63%) are 22 points apart, and nothing settles it); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–18.8%
Morecambe FC goals →
Darlington FC goals ↓
0-03%
1-06%
2-08%
3-06%
4-03%
5-02%
0-13%
1-19%
2-110%
3-17%
4-14%
5-12%
0-22%
1-25%
2-26%
3-25%
4-23%
5-21%
0-30.9%
1-32%
2-32%
3-32%
4-31%
5-30.5%
0-40.3%
1-40.7%
2-40.8%
3-40.6%
4-40.3%
5-40.2%
0-50.1%
1-50.2%
2-50.2%
3-50.1%
4-50.1%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).
FORM · LAST 10
MORECAMBE FCLLLWWWLWWD1.60 PPG
DARLINGTON FCWLLLWLLLWD1.00 PPG
THE NUMBERS
MORECAMBE FC HOMExDARLINGTON FC AWAY
1.50SCORED A GAME1.500.80CONCEDED A GAME2.1040%CLEAN SHEETS10%20%FAILED TO SCORE20%
THE BANK
THE QUALITY READ
1.40POINTS A GAME0.70+0.50GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.90+0.2SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-3.22.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.810LEAGUE GAMES10
Morecambe FC: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).
MORECAMBE FC 2:0 HANDICAP
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389 OF 413
NO PRICE YET
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
75%
NO · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
55%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
92%
VERY GOOD · 85/90
MORECAMBE FC OR DRAW
71%
NO · 80/85
DARLINGTON FC OR DRAW
39%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
MORECAMBE FCxDARLINGTON FC
5GAMES52.00SCORED A GAME1.800.60CONCEDED A GAME2.602.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.480%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%40%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
TRENDS
Morecambe FC have scored in 80% of their games.
Darlington FC have scored in 80% of their games.
Morecambe FC kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.
Darlington FC kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets