Match details. FA Cup, 3rd Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Marine FC have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L. In this competition Marine FC have gone W. Warrington Town have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W D.
The numbers. Marine FC score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Warrington Town score 2.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Warrington Town average 7.8 shots (2.6 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last five meetings Marine FC have won three, drawn one and lost one. Two of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. In the last four, Marine FC won two, one was drawn and Warrington Town won one. The last time they met, on 18 Apr 2025, it finished Marine FC 1-0 Warrington Town.
Where it pulls both ways. Warrington Town are the form side, but the meetings favour Marine FC: in the last five meetings, Marine FC won three, Warrington Town won one and one was drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%; three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Marine FC 1-1 Warrington Town (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).