LFLEI

15:00Sat 3 Oct

COV

Leiston FC vs Coventry United

CLASS D

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. FA Cup, 3rd Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Leiston FC have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W W. Coventry United have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W. In this competition Coventry United have gone W W L W L L.

The numbers. Leiston FC score 1.9 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Coventry United score 0.8 and concede 2.2 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal.

The case against. A knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Leiston FC are not clearly stronger. Coventry United's record still gives them 36% to win.

The read. Leiston FC or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Leiston FC the likelier winners; Leiston FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Leiston FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Leiston FC 2-1 Coventry United (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Leiston FC or Over 1.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

no price yet

LEI 9 of 10 (90%) · COV 4 of 6 (67%)79.2%

Leiston FC: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Coventry United: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 85% · the call is Leiston FC or the draw: a knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Leiston FC are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Leiston FC (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY

1.34

LEI 4 of 8 (50%) · COV 4 of 6 (67%)73.9%

Leiston FC won 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Coventry United lost 4 of 6 away (draws left out) · both last 10: 58% · won 6, refunded 0, lost 4

Leiston FC or Both Teams ScoreTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.13

LEI 7 of 10 (70%) · COV 4 of 6 (67%)71.7%

Leiston FC: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Coventry United: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 75% · the call is Leiston FC or the draw: a knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Leiston FC are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Leiston FC or Over 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.25

LEI 8 of 10 (80%) · COV 4 of 6 (67%)69.2%

Leiston FC: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Coventry United: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 80% · the call is Leiston FC or the draw: a knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Leiston FC are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Leiston FC or Draw & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY

1.43

LEI 5 of 10 (50%) · COV 4 of 6 (67%)56.7%

Leiston FC: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Coventry United: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 60%

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.19

LEI 9 of 10 (90%) · COV 4 of 6 (67%)72.9%

Leiston FC: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Coventry United: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 85%

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.60

LEI 8 of 10 (80%) · COV 3 of 6 (50%)57.5%

Leiston FC: over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Coventry United: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 75%

LEISTON FC GOALS

Leiston FC Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.11

LEI 7 of 10 (70%) · COV 4 of 6 (67%)71.7%

Leiston FC scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Coventry United conceded in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 75%

COVENTRY UNITED GOALS

Coventry United Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.39

LEI 3 of 6 (50%) · COV 8 of 10 (80%)57.5%

Coventry United scored in 3 of 6 away · Leiston FC conceded in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.6%

Leiston FC goals →

Coventry United goals ↓

0-04%

1-07%

2-07%

3-05%

4-03%

5-01%

0-14%

1-110%

2-110%

3-17%

4-13%

5-11%

0-23%

1-26%

2-26%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.9%

0-31%

1-33%

2-33%

3-32%

4-31.0%

5-30.4%

0-40.4%

1-40.8%

2-40.9%

3-40.6%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

LEISTON FCDWLDWWWLLL1.40 PPG

COVENTRY UNITEDLDLLLWLLWW1.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

LEISTON FC HOMExCOVENTRY UNITED AWAY

1.90SCORED A GAME1.201.70CONCEDED A GAME2.2020%CLEAN SHEETS33%

TRENDS

Leiston FC have scored in 70% of their games.

Coventry United have scored in 67% of their games.

Leiston FC kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Coventry United kept a clean sheet in 33% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets