HTHAR

15:00Sat 3 Oct

STA

Harborough Town FC vs St Albans City

CLASS D

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. FA Cup, 3rd Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Harborough Town FC have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L L. In this competition Harborough Town FC have gone W. St Albans City have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W.

The numbers. Harborough Town FC score 1.3 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. St Albans City score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: St Albans City or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); St Albans City (Draw No Bet) (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Harborough Town FC 1-1 St Albans City (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.09

HAR 5 of 6 (83%) · STA 4 of 5 (80%)88.3%

Harborough Town FC: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · St Albans City: under 5.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 90%

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.25

HAR 5 of 6 (83%) · STA 4 of 5 (80%)85.8%

Harborough Town FC: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · St Albans City: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80%

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.64

HAR 5 of 6 (83%) · STA 3 of 5 (60%)78.3%

Harborough Town FC: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · St Albans City: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 70%

ST ALBANS CITY GOALS

St Albans City Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.25

HAR 4 of 5 (80%) · STA 3 of 6 (50%)62.5%

St Albans City scored in 4 of 5 away · Harborough Town FC conceded in 3 of 6 at home · both last 10: 70%

Left off the list: St Albans City or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); St Albans City (Draw No Bet) (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.6%

Harborough Town FC goals →

St Albans City goals ↓

0-07%

1-08%

2-06%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-28%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.3%

0-33%

1-34%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.5%

5-30.1%

0-40.9%

1-41%

2-40.9%

3-40.4%

4-40.2%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

HARBOROUGH TOWN FCWDWLWLLDWL1.40 PPG

ST ALBANS CITYLLWDDWWDWW1.80 PPG

THE NUMBERS

HARBOROUGH TOWN FC HOMExST ALBANS CITY AWAY

1.00SCORED A GAME2.101.10CONCEDED A GAME1.2030%CLEAN SHEETS40%40%FAILED TO SCORE33%

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.22POINTS A GAME1.75-0.44GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.50–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–0.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.69LEAGUE GAMES8

St Albans City: the quality side - a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

92%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

60%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

85%

OKAY · 85/90

HARBOROUGH TOWN FC OR DRAW

78%

NO · 80/85

ST ALBANS CITY OR DRAW

57%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

HARBOROUGH TOWN FCxST ALBANS CITY

5GAMES50.40SCORED A GAME2.401.40CONCEDED A GAME1.801.8GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.260%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%20%BOTH SCORE60%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Harborough Town FC have scored in 60% of their games.

St Albans City have scored in 70% of their games.

Harborough Town FC kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

St Albans City kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets