Match details. FA Cup, 3rd Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Hanwell Town FC have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W D W. In this competition Hanwell Town FC have gone W W. Dover Athletic FC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L. In this competition Dover Athletic FC have gone W.
The numbers. Hanwell Town FC score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Hanwell Town FC average 4.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Dover Athletic FC score 2.1 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal.
The case against. A knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Dover Athletic FC are not clearly stronger. Hanwell Town FC's record still gives them 28% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The read. Dover Athletic FC or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Dover Athletic FC the likelier winners; Dover Athletic FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Dover Athletic FC.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Hanwell Town FC 1-1 Dover Athletic FC (10% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Dover Athletic FC (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY
1.68
HAN 6 of 8 (75%) · DOV 4 of 7 (57%)70.3%
Dover Athletic FC won 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Hanwell Town FC lost 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 66% · won 5, refunded 2, lost 2
Double Chance: Draw or Dover Athletic FCLEANIN CODES
1.40
HAN 8 of 10 (80%) · DOV 3 of 5 (60%)66.3%
Dover Athletic FC unbeaten in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Hanwell Town FC failed to win 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 75%
Dover Athletic FC or Under 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.40
HAN 7 of 10 (70%) · DOV 3 of 5 (60%)62.5%
Dover Athletic FC: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Hanwell Town FC: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 70% · the call is Dover Athletic FC or the draw: a knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Dover Athletic FC are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
GOALS
Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.09
HAN 4 of 5 (80%) · DOV 7 of 10 (70%)82.5%
Hanwell Town FC: under 5.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Dover Athletic FC: under 5.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%
Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.24
HAN 4 of 5 (80%) · DOV 6 of 10 (60%)78.8%
Hanwell Town FC: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Dover Athletic FC: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%
Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.61
HAN 4 of 5 (80%) · DOV 5 of 10 (50%)73.8%
Hanwell Town FC: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Dover Athletic FC: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65%
DOVER ATHLETIC FC GOALS
Dover Athletic FC Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.17
HAN 8 of 10 (80%) · DOV 4 of 5 (80%)72.5%
Dover Athletic FC scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Hanwell Town FC conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 80%
Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–110.4%
Hanwell Town FC goals →
Dover Athletic FC goals ↓
0-04%
1-05%
2-04%
3-02%
4-00.6%
5-00.2%
0-16%
1-110%
2-17%
3-13%
4-11%
5-10.3%
0-26%
1-29%
2-27%
3-23%
4-21%
5-20.3%
0-34%
1-36%
2-34%
3-32%
4-30.7%
5-30.2%
0-42%
1-43%
2-42%
3-40.9%
4-40.3%
5-40.1%
0-50.7%
1-51%
2-50.7%
3-50.4%
4-50.1%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).
FORM · LAST 10
HANWELL TOWN FCWDLLLWDWLD1.20 PPG
DOVER ATHLETIC FCWLWDDLWWWW2.00 PPG
THE NUMBERS
HANWELL TOWN FC HOMExDOVER ATHLETIC FC AWAY
1.00SCORED A GAME2.101.30CONCEDED A GAME1.6020%CLEAN SHEETS30%50%FAILED TO SCORE30%
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
HANWELL TOWN FC 3:0 HANDICAP
–
134 OF 142
NO PRICE YET
The tips say a tight game and the Bank expects under 2.3 goals.
BOTH HALVES OVER 1.5: NO
–
138 OF 151
NO PRICE YET
The tips say a tight game and the Bank expects under 2.3 goals.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
1.25POINTS A GAME1.70+0.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.10–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–1.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.08LEAGUE GAMES10
Dover Athletic FC: the quality side - better form (last 5).
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
44%
NO · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
33%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
90%
VERY GOOD · 85/90
HANWELL TOWN FC OR DRAW
72%
NO · 80/85
DOVER ATHLETIC FC OR DRAW
61%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
HANWELL TOWN FCxDOVER ATHLETIC FC
5GAMES50.40SCORED A GAME1.200.60CONCEDED A GAME1.001.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.220%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%0%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%20%BOTH SCORE20%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
TRENDS
Hanwell Town FC have scored in 60% of their games.
Dover Athletic FC have scored in 80% of their games.
Hanwell Town FC kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
Dover Athletic FC kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards