Guiseley FC vs Bradford Park Avenue AFC
Match details. FA Cup, 3rd Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Guiseley FC have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. Bradford Park Avenue AFC have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. In this competition Bradford Park Avenue AFC have gone W W.
The numbers. Guiseley FC score 2.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Guiseley FC average 10.3 shots (3.7 on target), 6.3 corners and 1.3 cards a game. Bradford Park Avenue AFC score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Bradford Park Avenue AFC average 1.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Guiseley FC have won three, drawn three and lost none. Four of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Guiseley FC won one and three were drawn. The last time they met, on 1 Jan 2024, it finished Guiseley FC 1-0 Bradford Park Avenue AFC.
The case against. A knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Guiseley FC are not clearly stronger. Bradford Park Avenue AFC's record still gives them 31% to win.
The read. Guiseley FC or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Guiseley FC the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Guiseley FC; the meetings favour Guiseley FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 79%. Four of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Bradford Park Avenue AFC or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Guiseley FC); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Bradford Park Avenue AFC or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Guiseley FC). Predicted score: Guiseley FC 2-1 Bradford Park Avenue AFC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).