GTGAI

15:00Sat 3 Oct

ANS

Gainsborough Trinity vs Anstey Nomads

CLASS D

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. FA Cup, 3rd Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Gainsborough Trinity have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D L W. Anstey Nomads have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W. In this competition Anstey Nomads have gone W W.

The numbers. Gainsborough Trinity score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Gainsborough Trinity average 7.2 shots (2.8 on target), 2.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game. Anstey Nomads score 2.3 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 36% against the records' 59%.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%.

The read. No firm call: Anstey Nomads are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Anstey Nomads are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Anstey Nomads.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Gainsborough Trinity 1-1 Anstey Nomads (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.20

GAI 4 of 5 (80%) · ANS 4 of 6 (67%)80.4%

Gainsborough Trinity: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Anstey Nomads: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 75%

Under 3.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.57

GAI 4 of 5 (80%) · ANS 2 of 6 (33%)67.1%

Gainsborough Trinity: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Anstey Nomads: under 3.5 goals in 2 of 6 away · both last 10: 55%

GAINSBOROUGH TRINITY GOALS

Gainsborough Trinity Over 0.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 84%

1.19

GAI 2 of 5 (40%) · ANS 5 of 6 (83%)60.8%

Gainsborough Trinity scored in 2 of 5 at home · Anstey Nomads conceded in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 70%

Gainsborough Trinity Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.86

GAI 3 of 5 (60%) · ANS 3 of 6 (50%)52.5%

Gainsborough Trinity scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 at home · Anstey Nomads conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 50%

ANSTEY NOMADS GOALS

Anstey Nomads Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.28

GAI 6 of 6 (100%) · ANS 4 of 5 (80%)81.3%

Anstey Nomads scored in 6 of 6 away · Gainsborough Trinity conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 95%

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 10.5%

Gainsborough Trinity goals →

Anstey Nomads goals ↓

0-04%

1-05%

2-04%

3-02%

4-00.8%

5-00.2%

0-16%

1-111%

2-17%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-29%

2-27%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-34%

1-35%

2-34%

3-32%

4-30.8%

5-30.2%

0-42%

1-42%

2-42%

3-40.9%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-50.6%

1-50.9%

2-50.7%

3-50.3%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

GAINSBOROUGH TRINITYWLDWLWLDWD1.50 PPG

ANSTEY NOMADSWWLWWWWDWL2.20 PPG

THE NUMBERS

GAINSBOROUGH TRINITY HOMExANSTEY NOMADS AWAY

1.90SCORED A GAME2.301.60CONCEDED A GAME1.3010%CLEAN SHEETS30%0%FAILED TO SCORE0%

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.44POINTS A GAME1.67+0.22GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.33–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–0.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.49LEAGUE GAMES9

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

96%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

70%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

84%

NO · 85/90

GAINSBOROUGH TRINITY OR DRAW

48%

NO · 80/85

ANSTEY NOMADS OR DRAW

60%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

GAINSBOROUGH TRINITYxANSTEY NOMADS

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME1.601.40CONCEDED A GAME2.002.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.680%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%20%BOTH SCORE100%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Gainsborough Trinity have scored in 70% of their games.

Anstey Nomads have scored in 100% of their games.

Gainsborough Trinity kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Anstey Nomads kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards