Cray Wanderers vs Chippenham Town
Match details. FA Cup, 3rd Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Cray Wanderers have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D D. Chippenham Town have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D D L.
The numbers. Cray Wanderers score 2.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Cray Wanderers average 11.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Chippenham Town score 0.8 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Chippenham Town average 3.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
The case against. A knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and Cray Wanderers are not clearly stronger.
The read. Cray Wanderers or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Cray Wanderers the likelier winners; Cray Wanderers are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cray Wanderers. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The bets. Best bet: Cray Wanderers or Draw at 1.23, 84% on the records (Cray Wanderers unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home; Chippenham Town failed to win 4 of 6 away). Backup: Cray Wanderers Over 0.5 Goals at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Cray Wanderers 2-1 Chippenham Town (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).