Buxton FC vs South Shields
Match details. FA Cup, 3rd Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Buxton FC have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L. In this competition Buxton FC have gone W. South Shields have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. In this competition South Shields have gone W.
The numbers. Buxton FC score 2.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. South Shields score 2.1 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Buxton FC have won two, drawn three and lost five. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, two were drawn and South Shields won two. The last time they met, on 26 Sep 2026, it finished Buxton FC 0-4 South Shields.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%; seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. A knockout game (3rd Round Qualifying) with penalties if level, and South Shields are not clearly stronger. Buxton FC's record still gives them 29% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The read. South Shields or the draw. A tight game. South Shields are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour South Shields; the meetings favour South Shields. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or South Shields at 1.39, 71% on the records (South Shields unbeaten in 7 of 9; Buxton FC failed to win 5 of 9). Backup: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Buxton FC 1-1 South Shields (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).