Match details. Segunda Federacion. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. UD Logrones B have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D W. UE Olot have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D W.
The numbers. UD Logrones B score 2.8 and concede 0.5 a game over their last ten, with seven clean sheets and two games without a goal. UD Logrones B average 14.5 shots (6.8 on target), 5.3 corners and 2.0 cards a game. UE Olot score one and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. UE Olot average 12.3 shots (3.7 on target), 3.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
The case against. UE Olot's record still gives them 25% to win.
The read. UD Logrones B to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make UD Logrones B the likelier winners; UD Logrones B are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour UD Logrones B. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The bets. Best bet: UD Logrones B or Draw at 1.41, 75% on the records (UD Logrones B unbeaten in 9 of 10; UE Olot failed to win 3 of 5 away). Leave: UD Logrones B or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); UD Logrones B or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: UD Logrones B 1-0 UE Olot (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).