Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 1 - 5. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. SD Gernika Club are 6th on 8 points after 4 games, 1 point behind Ourense CF, level on points with Basconia. A win would take them above Ourense CF. Sestao River Club are 4th on 9 points after 4 games, 1 point behind Bergantiños, level on points with Ourense CF. A win would take them above Bergantiños.
Form. SD Gernika Club have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D D. Sestao River Club have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W.
The numbers. SD Gernika Club score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. SD Gernika Club average 9.6 shots (3.4 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Sestao River Club score one and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Sestao River Club average 13.3 shots (3.9 on target), 7.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings SD Gernika Club have won one, drawn two and lost five. Three of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, two were drawn and Sestao River Club won two. The last time they met, on 22 Feb 2026, it finished SD Gernika Club 0-0 Sestao River Club.
The read. Sestao River Club to win. A tight game. Sestao River Club are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Sestao River Club. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 33%. Five of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: SD Gernika Club 0-1 Sestao River Club (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).