Ourense CF vs Arosa SC
Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 1 - 5. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio de O Couto.
What's at stake. Ourense CF are 5th on 9 points after 4 games, level on points with Sestao River, 1 point clear of Gernika. A win would take them above Sestao River. Arosa SC are 17th on 2 points after 4 games, 1 point behind Atlético Astorga, 1 point clear of Racing Santander II. A win would take them above Atlético Astorga.
Form. Ourense CF have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W. Arosa SC have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L D W.
The numbers. Ourense CF score 1.4 and concede two a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Ourense CF average 6.1 shots (2.3 on target), 3.7 corners and 3.0 cards a game. Arosa SC score 1.6 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Arosa SC average 9.7 shots (2.7 on target), 5.7 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Ourense CF have won none, drawn two and lost one. One of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 24 Jan 2021, it finished Ourense CF 1-1 Arosa SC.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Arosa SC the likelier winners, but Ourense CF are the stronger side on form and the table. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%; two of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Ourense CF 1-1 Arosa SC (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).