Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 1 - 5. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Bergantinos FC are 3rd on 10 points after 4 games, 2 points behind Deportivo Alavés II, 1 point clear of Sestao River. A win would take them above Deportivo Alavés II. Coruxo FC are 11th on 5 points after 4 games, 1 point behind Marino de Luanco, 1 point clear of Compostela. A win would take them above Marino de Luanco.
Form. Bergantinos FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. Coruxo FC have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D W D.
The numbers. Bergantinos FC score two and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Bergantinos FC average 12.7 shots (3.8 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.3 cards a game. Coruxo FC score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Coruxo FC average 9.7 shots (4.4 on target), 4.0 corners and 3.9 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Bergantinos FC have won one, drawn two and lost five. Two of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Bergantinos FC won one and Coruxo FC won three. The last time they met, on 29 Mar 2026, it finished Bergantinos FC 0-1 Coruxo FC.
Where it pulls both ways. Bergantinos FC are the form side, but the meetings favour Coruxo FC: in the last eight meetings, Bergantinos FC won one, Coruxo FC won five and two were drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%; six of the last eight meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Six of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Bergantinos FC 1-1 Coruxo FC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).