SFSAL

15:00Sat 3 Oct

DUL

Salisbury FC vs Dulwich Hamlet

CLASS D

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. FA Cup, 3rd Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Salisbury FC have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W. In this competition Salisbury FC have gone W. Dulwich Hamlet have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W. In this competition Dulwich Hamlet have gone W W.

The numbers. Salisbury FC score 2.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Dulwich Hamlet score 2.1 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Dulwich Hamlet average 8.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Salisbury FC 1-1 Dulwich Hamlet (11% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.22

SAL 3 of 5 (60%) · DUL 8 of 10 (80%)80%

Salisbury FC: under 4.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Dulwich Hamlet: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%

Under 3.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.60

SAL 3 of 5 (60%) · DUL 5 of 10 (50%)68.7%

Salisbury FC: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Dulwich Hamlet: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65%

SALISBURY FC GOALS

Salisbury FC Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.11

SAL 5 of 5 (100%) · DUL 7 of 10 (70%)81.2%

Salisbury FC scored in 5 of 5 at home · Dulwich Hamlet conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%

HALVES

1st Half Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SAL 4 of 5 (80%) · DUL 8 of 10 (80%)80%

Salisbury FC: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Dulwich Hamlet: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 11%

Salisbury FC goals →

Dulwich Hamlet goals ↓

0-05%

1-06%

2-06%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.5%

0-15%

1-111%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.8%

0-24%

1-28%

2-27%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.6%

0-32%

1-34%

2-33%

3-32%

4-30.8%

5-30.3%

0-40.8%

1-41%

2-41%

3-40.7%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-50.2%

1-50.4%

2-50.4%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

SALISBURY FCDLLWDWDWWW1.80 PPG

DULWICH HAMLETLWLDWWWWLW1.90 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SALISBURY FC HOMExDULWICH HAMLET AWAY

1.70SCORED A GAME2.100.80CONCEDED A GAME1.2040%CLEAN SHEETS30%10%FAILED TO SCORE12%

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.80POINTS A GAME2.00+1.10GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.12–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–2.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.010LEAGUE GAMES8

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

80%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

49%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

78%

NO · 85/90

SALISBURY FC OR DRAW

74%

NO · 80/85

DULWICH HAMLET OR DRAW

27%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

SALISBURY FCxDULWICH HAMLET

5GAMES52.00SCORED A GAME1.800.60CONCEDED A GAME1.202.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.080%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%20%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE60%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Salisbury FC have scored in 90% of their games.

Dulwich Hamlet have scored in 90% of their games.

Salisbury FC kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Dulwich Hamlet kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets