NICNCA

03:00Fri 2 Oct

CRC

Nicaragua vs Costa Rica

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. CONCACAF Nations League, League A - 1. Kick-off is Fri 2 Oct, 03:00 Lagos time. It is played at Nicaragua National Football Stadium, Managua.

Form. Nicaragua have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W L. Costa Rica have won one, drawn six and lost three of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L W.

The numbers. Nicaragua score 0.8 and concede 2.4 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Nicaragua average 6.7 shots (2.0 on target), 2.0 corners and 2.1 cards a game. Costa Rica score 0.5 and concede one a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Costa Rica average 12.7 shots (5.0 on target), 1.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 65% against the records' 37%.

The read. No firm call: Costa Rica are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Costa Rica the likelier winners; Costa Rica are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 34%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Nicaragua 0-1 Costa Rica (14% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Costa Rica the favourite), a tight game.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Nicaragua in their last internationals: lost 1-6 at Curacao, lost 2-3 at Dominican Republic. Costa Rica in their last internationals: lost 0-2 at Haiti, lost 3-4 v Curacao. Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.14

NCA 5 of 7 (71%) · CRC 6 of 6 (100%)82.3%

Nicaragua: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Costa Rica: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 72% · Nicaragua: only games against sides at Costa Rica's level · each game weighed by who it was against

NICARAGUA GOALS

Nicaragua Over 0.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 64%

1.57

NCA 4 of 7 (57%) · CRC 4 of 6 (67%)42.7%

Nicaragua scored in 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Costa Rica conceded in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 62% · Nicaragua: only games against sides at Costa Rica's level · each game weighed by who it was against

COSTA RICA GOALS

Costa Rica Over 0.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 88%

1.14

CRC 2 of 6 (33%) · NCA 6 of 7 (86%)42.2%

Costa Rica scored in 2 of 6 away · Nicaragua conceded in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65% · Nicaragua: only games against sides at Costa Rica's level · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

NCA 6 of 7 (86%) · CRC 5 of 5 (100%)92.9%

Nicaragua's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Costa Rica's games: over 2.5 cards in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 93% · Nicaragua: only games against sides at Costa Rica's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 13.7%

Nicaragua goals →

Costa Rica goals ↓

0-011%

1-08%

2-04%

3-01%

4-00.2%

5-00.0%

0-114%

1-113%

2-15%

3-12%

4-10.3%

5-10.1%

0-210%

1-29%

2-24%

3-21%

4-20.2%

5-20.0%

0-35%

1-34%

2-32%

3-30.5%

4-30.1%

5-30.0%

0-42%

1-42%

2-40.7%

3-40.2%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.5%

1-50.4%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

NICARAGUALLLWLLLDLW0.70 PPG

COSTA RICALLDLWDDDDD0.90 PPG

THE NUMBERS

NICARAGUA HOMExCOSTA RICA AWAY

0.80SCORED A GAME1.302.40CONCEDED A GAME1.4020%CLEAN SHEETS30%2.00CORNERS A GAME1.002.10CARDS A GAME2.67

TRENDS

Nicaragua have scored in 60% of their games.

Costa Rica have scored in 50% of their games.

Nicaragua kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Costa Rica kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards