Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town FC
Match details. Northern Premier League Premier, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Lancaster City are 12th on 13 points after 10 games, level on points with Gainsborough Trinity, 1 point clear of Whitby Town. A win would take them above Gainsborough Trinity. Ilkeston Town FC are 20th on 7 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Stockton Town, 1 point clear of Quorn. A win would take them above Stockton Town.
Form. Lancaster City have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W W. In this competition Lancaster City have gone W L L W W D. Ilkeston Town FC have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L D. In this competition Ilkeston Town FC have gone L L L L D L.
The numbers. Lancaster City score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Lancaster City average 3.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Ilkeston Town FC score 0.8 and concede 2.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Ilkeston Town FC average 2.7 corners and 1.3 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Lancaster City have won three, drawn none and lost three. Six of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Lancaster City won two and Ilkeston Town FC won two. The last time they met, on 17 Jan 2026, it finished Lancaster City 0-3 Ilkeston Town FC.
The case against. Ilkeston Town FC's record still gives them 41% to win.
The read. Lancaster City to win. An open game. Lancaster City are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lancaster City. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%. Six of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Lancaster City or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Lancaster City 2-1 Ilkeston Town FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).