Match details. Primera Federacion, Group 1 - 6. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 15:30 Lagos time. The referee is M. Garcia.
What's at stake. SD Ponferradina are 9th on 8 points after 5 games, level on points with Deportivo La Coruña II, level on points with Pontevedra. A win would take them above Deportivo La Coruña II. CD Mirandes are 5th on 10 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Cacereño, level on points with Racing Ferrol. A win would take them above Cacereño.
Form. SD Ponferradina have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L D W. CD Mirandes have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W L.
The numbers. SD Ponferradina score 0.4 and concede none a game in their last five at home, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal. SD Ponferradina average 7.7 shots (2.3 on target), 3.7 corners and 3.3 cards a game. CD Mirandes score 1.7 and concede 2.2 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Mirandes average 12.2 shots (4.8 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings SD Ponferradina have won five, drawn one and lost two. Four of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, SD Ponferradina won one, one was drawn and CD Mirandes won two. The last time they met, on 26 Mar 2023, it finished SD Ponferradina 0-0 CD Mirandes: SD Ponferradina had 7 shots to 7, 57% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 34%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.23, 81% on the records (SD Ponferradina: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 6; CD Mirandes: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5). Leave: SD Ponferradina or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); CD Mirandes or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: SD Ponferradina 1-1 CD Mirandes (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).