Middelfart BK vs FA 2000
Match details. 2nd Division, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Middelfart BK are 6th on 14 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Naestved, level on points with Fremad Amager. A win would take them above Naestved. FA 2000 are 11th on 5 points after 9 games, 3 points behind HIK, 1 point clear of Thisted FC. A win would take them level on points with HIK.
Form. Middelfart BK have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D D D. FA 2000 have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D D.
The numbers. Middelfart BK score 1.8 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Middelfart BK average 0.0 cards a game. FA 2000 score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. FA 2000 average 2.0 shots (0.7 on target), 0.6 corners and 0.4 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Middelfart BK have won four, drawn three and lost one. Two of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Middelfart BK won two and two were drawn. The last time they met, on 4 Nov 2023, it finished Middelfart BK 2-1 FA 2000.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 66% against the records' 45%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%; six of the last eight meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The read. No firm call: Middelfart BK are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Middelfart BK the likelier winners; Middelfart BK are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Middelfart BK. Six of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Middelfart BK or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Middelfart BK or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Middelfart BK 1-1 FA 2000 (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).