FC Cartagena vs Aguilas FC
Match details. Primera Federacion, Group 2 - 6. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena. The referee is I. de Sansteban Adame.
What's at stake. FC Cartagena are 14th on 5 points after 4 games, 1 point behind Huesca, level on points with Águilas. A win would take them above Huesca. Aguilas FC are 15th on 5 points after 5 games, level on points with FC Cartagena, 1 point clear of Rayo Majadahonda. A win would take them above FC Cartagena.
Form. FC Cartagena have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D W D. Aguilas FC have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L D.
The numbers. FC Cartagena score 1.3 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. FC Cartagena average 9.0 shots (3.6 on target), 4.9 corners and 3.7 cards a game. Aguilas FC score one and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and four games without a goal. Aguilas FC average 11.2 shots (3.4 on target), 4.8 corners and 3.7 cards a game.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: FC Cartagena or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Aguilas FC or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: FC Cartagena 1-1 Aguilas FC (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).