HDHER

12:00Sat 3 Oct

REA

Hercules de Alicante CF vs Real Jaen CF

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. Primera Federacion, Group 2 - 6. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time. The referee is J. Caballero.

What's at stake. Hercules de Alicante CF are 6th on 9 points after 5 games, level on points with Real Murcia, 1 point clear of Atlético Madrid II. A win would take them above Real Murcia. Real Jaen CF are 3rd on 10 points after 5 games, 2 points behind Zaragoza, 1 point clear of Alcorcon. A win would take them above Zaragoza.

Form. Hercules de Alicante CF have won three, drawn none and lost two of their last five, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L. Real Jaen CF have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D W.

The numbers. Hercules de Alicante CF score one and concede one a game over their last five, with two clean sheets. Real Jaen CF score 1.6 and concede one a game over their last five, with two clean sheets.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 22% against the records' 50%.

The read. No firm call: Real Jaen CF are the better side, but not at this price. Real Jaen CF are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Real Jaen CF.

The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Hercules de Alicante CF 1-1 Real Jaen CF (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

HER 5 of 5 (100%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)100%

Hercules de Alicante CF: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · Hercules de Alicante CF: only games against sides at Real Jaen CF's level · Real Jaen CF: only games against sides at Hercules de Alicante CF's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

HER 5 of 5 (100%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)100%

Hercules de Alicante CF: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · Hercules de Alicante CF: only games against sides at Real Jaen CF's level · Real Jaen CF: only games against sides at Hercules de Alicante CF's level

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

HER 5 of 5 (100%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)100%

Hercules de Alicante CF: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · Hercules de Alicante CF: only games against sides at Real Jaen CF's level · Real Jaen CF: only games against sides at Hercules de Alicante CF's level

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.36

HER 3 of 5 (60%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)70%

Hercules de Alicante CF: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · Hercules de Alicante CF: only games against sides at Real Jaen CF's level · Real Jaen CF: only games against sides at Hercules de Alicante CF's level

HALVES

1st Half Under 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

HER 5 of 5 (100%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)90%

Hercules de Alicante CF: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores · Hercules de Alicante CF: only games against sides at Real Jaen CF's level · Real Jaen CF: only games against sides at Hercules de Alicante CF's level

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.8%

Hercules de Alicante… goals →

Real Jaen CF goals ↓

0-010%

1-09%

2-05%

3-02%

4-00.5%

5-00.1%

0-111%

1-114%

2-17%

3-13%

4-10.7%

5-10.2%

0-28%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-33%

1-34%

2-32%

3-30.7%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-41%

1-41%

2-40.7%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.3%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).

FORM · LAST 5

HERCULES DE ALICANTE CFLLWWW1.80 PPG

REAL JAEN CFWDWWL2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

HERCULES DE ALICANTE CF HOMExREAL JAEN CF AWAY

1.00SCORED A GAME1.601.00CONCEDED A GAME1.0040%CLEAN SHEETS40%20%FAILED TO SCORE20%

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.80POINTS A GAME2.00+0.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.60+3.2SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–1.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.05LEAGUE GAMES5

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

71%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

50%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

98%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

HERCULES DE ALICANTE CF OR DRAW

38%

NO · 80/85

REAL JAEN CF OR DRAW

65%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 5 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

HERCULES DE ALICANTE CFxREAL JAEN CF

5GAMES51.00SCORED A GAME1.601.00CONCEDED A GAME1.002.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.660%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%40%BOTH SCORE40%5.4CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–9.6CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Hercules de Alicante CF failed to score in 20% of their games.

Real Jaen CF failed to score in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstleague table