Finland vs Albania
Match details. This is a UEFA Nations League, League C - 3 clash. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time at Helsinki Olympic Stadium. Robert Hennessy will be the referee.
What's at stake. Finland sit second on 4 points after two games, two points behind Albania and three clear of Belarus. A win would lift them above Albania. Albania sit top on 6 points, two points clear of Finland.
Form. Finland have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game, with a recent run of D W W L L and a D W record in this competition. Albania have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game, their last five being W W L L W and a W W run here.
The numbers. Finland score 0.8 and concede one a game at home in their last five, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. They average 11.9 shots (5.1 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.1 cards a game, holding 54% of the ball. Albania score 1.4 and concede 0.6 away in their last five, with three clean sheets. They average 11.4 shots (3.4 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 56% possession.
The case against. Finland's record still gives them 37% to win.
The read. Albania to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Albania are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Albania, their goals for and against point to a tight game and their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.23, 93% on the records (Finland: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Albania: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Finland 0-1 Albania (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).