RAREA

18:00Fri 2 Oct

CDL

Real Aviles CF vs CD Lugo

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. Primera Federacion, Group 1 - 6. Kick-off is Fri 2 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta. The referee is M. Cotero.

What's at stake. Real Aviles CF are 13th on 5 points after 5 games, 2 points behind Racing Ferrol, level on points with CD Coria. A win would take them above Racing Ferrol. CD Lugo are 2nd on 13 points after 5 games, level on points with UD Logroñés, 2 points clear of Athletic Club II. A win would take them above UD Logroñés.

Form. Real Aviles CF have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W L L. CD Lugo have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W.

The numbers. Real Aviles CF score 1.6 and concede 2.1 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets. Real Aviles CF average 7.7 shots (3.0 on target), 3.4 corners and 3.1 cards a game. CD Lugo score 1.3 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Lugo average 8.9 shots (3.1 on target), 3.9 corners and 3.1 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Real Aviles CF have won none, drawn one and lost one. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 25 Jan 2026, it finished Real Aviles CF 1-2 CD Lugo.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 31% against the records' 52%.

The read. No firm call: CD Lugo are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make CD Lugo the likelier winners; CD Lugo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Lugo. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Real Aviles CF 1-2 CD Lugo (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

REA 10 of 10 (100%) · CDL 5 of 6 (83%)91.1%

Real Aviles CF: over 0.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Lugo: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 90% · Real Aviles CF: only games against sides at CD Lugo's level · CD Lugo: only games against sides at Real Aviles CF's level

REAL AVILES CF GOALS

Real Aviles CF Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.59

REA 5 of 10 (50%) · CDL 5 of 6 (83%)66.1%

Real Aviles CF scored under 1.5 in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Lugo conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 65% · Real Aviles CF: only games against sides at CD Lugo's level · CD Lugo: only games against sides at Real Aviles CF's level

CD LUGO GOALS

CD Lugo Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.38

REA 4 of 6 (67%) · CDL 10 of 10 (100%)83.9%

CD Lugo scored in 4 of 6 away · Real Aviles CF conceded in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · CD Lugo: only games against sides at Real Aviles CF's level · Real Aviles CF: only games against sides at CD Lugo's level

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.39

REA 8 of 10 (80%) · CDL 4 of 6 (67%)72.2%

Real Aviles CF: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Lugo: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 70% · on half-time scores · Real Aviles CF: only games against sides at CD Lugo's level · CD Lugo: only games against sides at Real Aviles CF's level

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

REA 7 of 7 (100%) · CDL 4 of 5 (80%)91%

Real Aviles CF's games: over 2.5 cards in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · CD Lugo's games: over 2.5 cards in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 93% · Real Aviles CF: only games against sides at CD Lugo's level · CD Lugo: only games against sides at Real Aviles CF's level

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 9.5%

Real Aviles CF goals →

CD Lugo goals ↓

0-06%

1-06%

2-04%

3-02%

4-00.5%

5-00.1%

0-18%

1-112%

2-17%

3-13%

4-10.9%

5-10.2%

0-28%

1-210%

2-26%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-34%

1-36%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-42%

1-42%

2-42%

3-40.6%

4-40.2%

5-40.0%

0-50.7%

1-50.9%

2-50.5%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

REAL AVILES CFDDLLDLLWDD0.80 PPG

CD LUGOLWLWDWDWWW2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

REAL AVILES CF HOMExCD LUGO AWAY

1.60SCORED A GAME1.102.10CONCEDED A GAME0.800%CLEAN SHEETS60%20%FAILED TO SCORE20%3.43CORNERS A GAME3.863.14CARDS A GAME3.14

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.00POINTS A GAME2.60+0.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.00-3.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+0.81.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.65LEAGUE GAMES5

CD Lugo: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

CD LUGO 0:2 HANDICAP

–

373 OF 433

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

60%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

50%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

93%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

REAL AVILES CF OR DRAW

47%

NO · 80/85

CD LUGO OR DRAW

73%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 5 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

REAL AVILES CFxCD LUGO

5GAMES51.60SCORED A GAME1.401.60CONCEDED A GAME0.403.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES1.880%OVER 1.5 GOALS40%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%80%BOTH SCORE40%5.2CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.89.6CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES9.4

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

REAL AVILES CF 0 · 0%DRAW 1CD LUGO 1 · 50%

2025-09-06Real Aviles CF 0 – 0 CD Lugo

2026-01-25Real Aviles CF 1 – 2 CD Lugo

TRENDS

Real Aviles CF have scored in 90% of their games.

CD Lugo have scored in 70% of their games.

Real Aviles CF kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.

CD Lugo kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards