Match details. We have NM Cup action here as Baerum SK take on Lillestroem SK in the Round of 64. Kick-off is on Thu 1 Oct at 17:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. This is a cup tie played over just one game, and we will see penalties if it ends level.
Form. Baerum SK have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten games, averaging 1.6 points a game. They won their only match in this competition so far, but their recent form reads L L L W D. Lillestroem SK have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, taking 1.1 points a game. They also won their cup opener, but have gone L L W W W recently.
The numbers. At home, Baerum SK score 3.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five, keeping two clean sheets. They average 10.0 shots with 6.2 on target, 6.8 corners and 1.9 cards. Lillestroem SK score one and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, keeping two clean sheets but failing to score in three matches. They average 10.2 shots with 3.6 on target, 6.8 corners and 1.7 cards.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 71%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Baerum SK or Over 2.5 Goals (no side to back); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Baerum SK or Over 1.5 Goals (no side to back). Predicted score: Baerum SK 2-1 Lillestroem SK (10% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Lillestroem SK or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
BAE 5 of 6 (83%) · LIL 4 of 5 (80%)88.5%
Lillestroem SK: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · Baerum SK: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 90% · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
BAE 5 of 5 (100%) · LIL 5 of 6 (83%)94.8%
Baerum SK: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Lillestroem SK: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.22
BAE 4 of 5 (80%) · LIL 4 of 6 (67%)72%
Baerum SK: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Lillestroem SK: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 65% · each game weighed by who it was against
BAERUM SK GOALS
Baerum SK Over 0.5 GoalsLEANIN CODES
1.73
BAE 5 of 5 (100%) · LIL 4 of 6 (67%)68.3%
Baerum SK scored in 5 of 5 at home · Lillestroem SK conceded in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 88%
1.13
BAE 3 of 5 (60%) · LIL 4 of 6 (67%)67.6%
Baerum SK: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Lillestroem SK: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Baerum SK or Over 2.5 Goals (no side to back); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Baerum SK or Over 1.5 Goals (no side to back)
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 2–19.7%
Baerum SK goals →
Lillestroem SK goals ↓
0-04%
1-07%
2-09%
3-07%
4-04%
5-02%
0-13%
1-19%
2-110%
3-17%
4-14%
5-12%
0-22%
1-25%
2-25%
3-24%
4-22%
5-21%
0-30.8%
1-32%
2-32%
3-32%
4-30.9%
5-30.4%
0-40.2%
1-40.5%
2-40.6%
3-40.5%
4-40.3%
5-40.1%
0-50.1%
1-50.1%
2-50.1%
3-50.1%
4-50.1%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).
FORM · LAST 10
BAERUM SKWLWWWDWLLL1.60 PPG
LILLESTROEM SKLLDDLWWWLL1.10 PPG
THE NUMBERS
BAERUM SK HOMExLILLESTROEM SK AWAY
2.80SCORED A GAME1.001.80CONCEDED A GAME1.7020%CLEAN SHEETS30%6.75CORNERS A GAME6.781.88CARDS A GAME1.67
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
DRAW OR LILLESTROEM SK (1UP)
–
137 OF 146
NO PRICE YET
The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
1.25POINTS A GAME1.30+0.38GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.70–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-3.80.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.48LEAGUE GAMES10
Baerum SK: the quality side - a better goal difference.
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
96%
VERY GOOD · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
56%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
83%
NO · 85/90
BAERUM SK OR DRAW
62%
NO · 80/85
LILLESTROEM SK OR DRAW
48%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
BAERUM SKxLILLESTROEM SK
5GAMES51.00SCORED A GAME1.202.00CONCEDED A GAME1.803.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.080%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE60%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
TRENDS
Baerum SK have scored in 90% of their games.
Lillestroem SK have scored in 70% of their games.
Baerum SK kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
Lillestroem SK kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards