ICEISL

17:00Sat 3 Oct

BUL

BUL

Iceland vs Bulgaria

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 3. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Ice Rink Laugardalur, Reykjavik. The referee is Balazs Berke.

What's at stake. Iceland are 1st on 4 points after 2 games, 1 point clear of Luxembourg. Bulgaria are 4th on 1 point after 2 games, 1 point behind Estonia. A win would take them above Estonia.

Form. Iceland have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W D. In this competition Iceland have gone W D L L. Bulgaria have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W W. In this competition Bulgaria have gone D L.

The numbers. Iceland score 2.4 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Iceland average 11.6 shots (4.5 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Bulgaria score 2.2 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Bulgaria average 7.7 shots (2.7 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 34% of the ball.

The case against. Bulgaria's record still gives them 32% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 76%.

The read. Iceland to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Iceland the likelier winners; Iceland are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Iceland.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Iceland 2-0 Bulgaria (7% chance).

The agreed story. Iceland or the draw, a tight game.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Iceland in their last internationals: won 3-0 at Luxembourg, drew 1-1 v Estonia. Bulgaria in their last internationals: drew 0-0 v Estonia, lost 1-2 v Luxembourg. Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Iceland or Draw (1UP)LEANHELD · the odds board 92%

1.09

ISL 4 of 5 (80%) · BUL 4 of 6 (67%)71.7%

Iceland scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Bulgaria trailed or failed to win in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues)

Iceland 1UPLEANHELD · the odds board 79%

1.26

ISL 4 of 5 (80%) · BUL 4 of 6 (67%)47.6%

Iceland scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Bulgaria trailed in 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues)

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.16

ISL 3 of 5 (60%) · BUL 4 of 5 (80%)84.2%

Iceland: under 4.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Bulgaria: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 84% · each game weighed by who it was against

ICELAND GOALS

Iceland Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.12

ISL 5 of 5 (100%) · BUL 4 of 5 (80%)76.2%

Iceland scored in 5 of 5 at home · Bulgaria conceded in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 90% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Iceland to Win (the numbers (61%) and the records (50%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–0 7.1%

Iceland goals →

Bulgaria goals ↓

0-03%

1-06%

2-07%

3-06%

4-03%

5-02%

0-13%

1-18%

2-19%

3-17%

4-14%

5-12%

0-22%

1-25%

2-26%

3-25%

4-23%

5-21%

0-30.9%

1-32%

2-33%

3-32%

4-31%

5-30.6%

0-40.3%

1-40.7%

2-40.9%

3-40.7%

4-40.4%

5-40.2%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.1%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

ICELANDLLWLLDWLDW1.10 PPG

BULGARIALLLLLWWWLD1.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ICELAND HOMExBULGARIA AWAY

1.90SCORED A GAME1.501.70CONCEDED A GAME2.3030%CLEAN SHEETS20%4.00CORNERS A GAME3.671.62CARDS A GAME1.501.39xG0.511.61xG AGAINST2.19

TRENDS

Iceland have scored in 90% of their games.

Bulgaria have scored in 50% of their games.

Iceland kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Bulgaria kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards