Estonia vs Luxembourg
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 3. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn. The referee is Pawel Raczkowski.
What's at stake. Estonia are 3rd on 2 points after 2 games, 1 point behind Luxembourg, 1 point clear of Bulgaria. A win would take them above Luxembourg. Luxembourg are 2nd on 3 points after 2 games, 1 point behind Iceland, 1 point clear of Estonia. A win would take them above Iceland.
Form. Estonia have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W L. In this competition Estonia have gone D D. Luxembourg have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L. In this competition Luxembourg have gone L W W W.
The numbers. Estonia score 0.8 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Estonia average 7.8 shots (3.0 on target), 2.4 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 42% of the ball. Luxembourg score 0.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Luxembourg average 8.4 shots (2.9 on target), 2.8 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.
The read. No side to back. A draw is live. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.18, rated 69% (Estonia: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Luxembourg: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Estonia 1-1 Luxembourg (14% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Luxembourg the favourite), a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Estonia in their last internationals: drew 0-0 at Bulgaria, drew 1-1 at Iceland (rated above them). Luxembourg in their last internationals: lost 0-3 v Iceland (rated above them), won 2-1 at Bulgaria. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).